[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil futures slumped at the start of the week after President Trump cancelled a 'massive' strike on Iran and touted a Strait of Hormuz deal with negotiations to begin on Monday afternoon

Headline-driven de-escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz follows a well-worn template: a risk premium builds into crude on strike threats and shipping fears, then unwinds sharply on any credible off-ramp, with the front of the curve taking the hit first and time spreads narrowing as prompt scarcity fears recede. The distinction that has mattered in past episodes of this kind is between a verified reopening of shipping and a negotiating framework: the former normalises freight and insurance costs and sustains the sell-off, the latter has historically left a residual premium that re-inflates quickly on the first violation or breakdown in talks. Trump's prior form in similar standoffs has alternated escalation and abrupt pauses, so the market's read has tended to price the announcement, not the follow-through. The tells to watch are the actual start and substance of Monday's negotiations, tanker traffic and war-risk premiums through Hormuz, and whether Gulf producers' rhetoric shifts. Gold's faded gap fits the established pattern: initial haven bid on uncertainty, then giveback as relief broadens. Copper's capped gains reflect the competing Chinese PMI disappointment, a reminder that base metals trade the growth channel rather than the geopolitical one once the immediate shock passes.