[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices are choppy and gold wobbled amid US-Iran threats and Fed rate hike bets

WTI/Brent: WTI May'26 +0.4% / Brent May'26 -0.3%

• Oil futures initially climbed at the reopen after the US and Iran exchanged threats to attack energy infrastructure, and with US President Trump announcing a 48-hour ultimatum for Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz. This lifted WTI crude futures to the USD 101.50/bbl level, where it then hit resistance and reversed course to briefly wipe out all of its gains, as participants also reflected on other weekend reports including the US Treasury issuing an Iran-related general licence approving the sale of Iranian-origin oil loaded as of March 20th and with source stating that Iran decided to limit its attacks on Saudi Arabia.

Gold: -2.0%

• Retreated with pressure exacerbated on a brief break below the USD 4,400/oz level and amid increased rate hike bets with money markets pricing a 54% likelihood of a Fed rate hike in October.

Copper: -0.6%

• Extended on last week's losses amid the broad downbeat mood but is off its worst levels after trickling to its lowest level in around three months.

Oil prices are experiencing volatility due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, particularly with threats concerning energy infrastructure. This geopolitical uncertainty, coupled with shifting expectations around Fed rate hikes, is exerting pressure on commodities like gold and copper, indicating a cautious market outlook as traders reassess risk amid potential supply disruptions and interest rate adjustments.