[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices continue to rise ahead of a week of agency forecasts

• Crude benchmarks have held onto the majority of Monday's gains, with WTI holding above USD 64/bbl while Brent regains the USD 69/bbl mark. Geopolitical risk premium continues to be priced into the oil market, despite US-Iran tensions easing somewhat following their indirect talks in Oman.
• During the US session on Monday, the US Maritime administration said ships flying the American flag should stay away from Iranian waters, more specifically the Strait of Hormuz. This warning hints that tensions could arise at any moment. Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz in recent conflicts, as it is a major route for oil tankers, but has never followed through on its threat.
• Later today, the EIA is to release its monthly oil report, with OPEC and IEA expected to release their respective forecasts later this week. A close eye will be on if the agencies continue to see a surplus throughout 2026. Brent spreads continue to trade in backwardation, which is a sign of near-term tightness.
• Nat gas futures have continued to pull back from the surge higher following the Arctic storm, due to warmer weather forecasts in the US. Henry Hub futures continues to near USD 3/MMBtu while Dutch TTF holds below EUR 35/MWh.

Oil prices are maintaining their recent gains as geopolitical tensions persist, particularly with the US warning ships to avoid Iranian waters—this keeps a risk premium embedded in the market. The upcoming EIA report will be crucial to gauge if supply forecasts align with current price movements, while concerns over surplus through 2026 could influence sentiment, especially with Brent trading in backwardation, suggesting immediate supply tightness.