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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Precious metals price out some geopolitical risk premium (XAU -0.9%, XAG -6.4%) while Copper falls as Chinese equities continue to weaken

The easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran has led to a significant sell-off in precious metals as the risk premium dissipates.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Precious metals price out some geopolitical risk premium (XAU -0.9%, XAG -6.4%) while Copper falls as Chinese equities continue to weaken

UN Security Council plans to meet with Iran at 15:00 EST / 20:00 GMT on Thursday, AFP reports

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed income oscillates in tight ranges following Wednesday's risk-off bid

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  • Crude futures trade with significant losses from their respective settlement prices following comments by US President Trump late in Wednesday’s US session, stating that he has been told the killing in Iran is stopping and that there is no plan for executions. Further downside was seen after an NBC report, which suggested US President Trump told advisors to avoid a prolonged war. WTI Feb’26 and Brent Mar’26 fell c. USD 2.50/bbl, troughing at USD 59.80/bbl and USD 64.20/bbl respectively, before oscillating in USD 60.06–61.14/bbl and USD 64.47–65.36/bbl ranges throughout the APAC session.
  • Precious metals have sold off aggressively from their ATHs, led by spot silver (-5.6%), as geopolitical tensions ease between the US and Iran. After peaking at a new ATH of USD 4,643/oz in Wednesday’s session, spot XAU has pulled back below USD 4,600/oz as traders remove some of the geopolitical risk premium.
  • Base metals trade mixed, with 3M LME copper following the risk-off tone in China (-1.5%), while tin futures in Shanghai rise by as much as 9%. 3M LME copper started the APAC session on the back foot and has dipped below USD 13k/t as Chinese equities continue to weaken.
Context

Gold and silver prices have declined sharply from their recent peaks, suggesting that the market is reassessing the potential for conflict and its associated impacts on safe-haven assets. Additionally, copper's weakness reflects broader concerns regarding Chinese economic performance, particularly as Chinese equities continue to struggle.

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