[MARKET ANALYSIS] Precious metals rebound amid geopolitical updates, Crude focuses on oversupply pre-OPEC

Newsquawk Staff · 2 Jan 2026, 10:25 UTC

Spot Gold kicked off 2026 on the front foot, with spot prices currently +1.5% intraday towards the upper end of a 4,326.28-4,397.84/oz range at the time of writing. The yellow metal printed a record high at ~USD 4,550/oz on Dec 26th before declining in the subsequent three sessions to a USD 4,274.03/oz trough on 31st Dec, with a near-USD 250/oz drop seen on Dec 29th. Spot Gold finished 2025 up 64% (best since 1979) on geopolitics, central-bank buying, ETF inflows and expectations for further Fed cuts. Spot Silver, meanwhile, hit a record peak at USD 84.03/oz on the 29th of Dec before slipping, with today's range between USD 71.84-74.54/oz.
Geopolitical updates have kept the precious metals complex underpinned, with US President Trump's warning to Iran this morning that the US is "locked and loaded and ready" to rescue peaceful protesters if Iran opens fire on them. Further, tensions flared between OPEC members Saudi Arabia and the UAE, primarily due to an open military and diplomatic confrontation in Yemen, with the two nations now actively backing rival factions and engaging in direct hostilities. In terms of Russia-Ukraine, Ukrainian President Zelensky said they are 10% away from a deal to end the war with Russia, but not at any cost, according to The Independent. That being said, Ukrainian authorities in Zaporizhzhia on the morning of January 2nd noted over 700 Russian attacks on the territory of the province.
WTI and Brent contracts, however, trade lower, with prices towards the lower ends of USD 57.08-57.93/bbl and USD 60.51-61.38/bbl, respectively. Focus for the complex lies more on oversupply risks as opposed to any geopolitical risks from the above, with traders also setting sights on this weekend's OPEC+ confab. OPEC+ is expected to reaffirm its production pause through Q1, maintaining the halt to further supply increases, according to Bloomberg sources. The stance reflects concerns over a looming global oversupply backdrop, with crude prices sharply lower over 2025 and forecasters warning of a potential glut in 2026. Delegates indicate little appetite to resume hikes at this stage, according to reports. Recent Saudi–UAE geopolitical tensions have generated headlines, but are widely viewed as noise rather than a threat to OPEC unity, with no expectation that they will spill over into production policy.

What our latest note said

EU Market Open, 9 Nov, 06:36 UTC · what it led with

US President Trump said it is highly unlikely the US will need to resume military action against Iran if negotiations progress, while Secretary of State Rubio said talks have been unproductive.
DXY consolidated after Friday's jobs-driven upside; Antipodeans outperformed, with the NZD aided by the weekend's election result.

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"We are interested in the diplomatic track, but without making concessions", Al Arabiya citing an Iranian diplomatic source.
WTI crude+0.8%
"Washington has approved the draft memorandum of understanding that the Qatari delegation presented to Iran yesterday", Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reports citing sources close to the mediation team.
WTI crude−3.6%
Qatari mediators expect feedback from the US and Iran within 36 hours on a new proposal to advance talks, according to an official briefed on the talks cited by Reuters.
WTI crude−1.6%

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