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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Spot gold printed an ATH above the USD 4.6k/oz, with upside driven by Fed independence woes and geopols

Gold reaching an all-time high above $4.6k per ounce reflects increased demand driven by fears over the Federal Reserve's independence and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning the U.S.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Spot gold printed an ATH above the USD 4.6k/oz, with upside driven by Fed independence woes and geopols

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude on the backfoot despite rising tensions re. Iran

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Equity sentiment dampened due to Powell's criminal investigation and Trump's credit card fee cap plan

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  • Spot gold opened on a slightly firmer footing, made a trough at USD 4,511.41/oz before gradually sauntering higher as the APAC session got underway. Thereafter, the yellow-metal surged beyond the USD 4.6k/oz mark, to make a fresh ATH at USD 4,601.19/oz. Since, spot gold has scaled back below USD 4.6k/oz, albeit it remains within a handful of dollars of that mark. Price action during European trade has been sideways.
  • Upside for the yellow metal can be attributed to two points, which have attracted haven inflows. 1) Fed independence woes, and 2) heightened geopolitical tensions. Starting with the Fed, US Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell over the central bank’s renovation of its Washington headquarters, and whether Powell lied to Congress about the scope of the project, NYT reported, citing officials. This has raised concerns among traders regarding the Fed's independence, given Trump's continued attempts to threaten Chair Powell's job.
  • As for geopols, newsflow has been generally focused on US-Iran, with reports overnight noting of an increased number of US planes in Iranian airspace. Moreover, US President Trump is to be briefed on Tuesday on "some kinetic and many non-kinetic" options in Iran, Politico reports, citing two administration officials.
  • Base metals have followed the metals sentiment, with 3M LME Copper currently higher by around +1.7% and towards the upper end of a USD 13,086-13,233/t range. In Shanghai, tin hit its daily limit, rising 8% to CNY 376,920/ton to set a new ATH.
Context

stance on Iran. This surge highlights the market’s tendency to seek safety in gold during periods of uncertainty, making it a critical factor for traders in navigating upcoming volatility in both commodities and broader financial markets.

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