[MARKET ANALYSIS] Stocks boosted by US-Venezuela developments; US energy soars pre-market; ASML +3% named top pick at Bernstein

European bourses are broadly on a stronger footing this morning (ex-SMI), with sentiment seemingly boosted by the US strike on Venezuela. A move which has pressured energy prices, and perhaps boosts optimism surrounding cheaper oil for global firms.
European sectors are mixed, with Tech, Industrials and Basic Resources forming the top three; Tech lifted by ASML, Industrials by defence names and Basic Resources benefits from stronger copper prices (all discussed below). Food Beverage & Tobacco lags, hampered by Nestle.
Sticking to the aforementioned geopolitical developments, energy names in Europe are broadly on the backfoot, whilst US energy names are soaring in the pre-market. The divergence is simply that US energy majors will benefit most from the recent attacks, with the POTUS noting that he anticipates US oil producers will be spending billions in Venezuela. Analysts at Panmure Liberum suggest that, “the big winners are going to be the US majors, Chevron in particular because it is already active in Venezuela". Thereafter, the likes of BP and Shell will be invited to projects as US peers look to spread risk.
Other movers in relation to the US-Venezuelan developments include: Ashmore (+10%), a large holder of Venezuelan sovereign and PDVSA bonds. Elsewhere, defence names such as Rheinmetall (+7.2%) have also been boosted – upside in the German arms manufacturer, which has lifted the DAX 40 to record highs.
Away from geopols, ASML (+3%) has been boosted after Bernstein named the Co. as its top pick for 2026, citing a combination of accelerating memory investment and a more attractive valuation backdrop; its updated PT of EUR 1300/shr (prev. EUR 800/shr), implies a circa 30% gain from current levels. Sticking in tech, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix reportedly offered major DRAM customers a 60-70% Q/Q increase in supply prices for Q1.
US equity futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.5%, RTY U/C) are mixed, but with outperformance in the tech-heavy NQ, following the strength seen in Europe. US energy names are soaring in pre-market trade with the likes of Chevron (+6.5%), Exxon (+3.5%) and Occidental (+1.5%) all stronger; the former outperforms given its existing exposure in the region.