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[MARKET ANALYSIS] The latest US tariffs lift XAU to another ATH, energy benchmarks on the back foot

The latest escalation in US tariffs, particularly in relation to Greenland, has driven gold to a new all-time high, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] The latest US tariffs lift XAU to another ATH, energy benchmarks on the back foot

Japanese PM Takaichi will not comment on FX; will take appropriate action on FX

[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY mildly pressured whilst the CHF gains on renewed trade tensions, Japan to hold elections on February 8th

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  • Crude benchmarks are in the red as the escalation of tensions over Greenland has seemingly taken some of the near-term focus away from Iran.
  • Overnight, WTI and Brent gapped lower to bases of USD 58.60/bbl and USD 63.30/bbl, respectively. However, the downside was markedly curtailed by the Iranian President threatening an all-out war if the Supreme Leader is attacked.
  • A remark that lifted the complex into the green and to highs of USD 59.56/bbl and USD 64.39/bbl, with gains of c. USD 0.20/bbl on the session.
  • One other point of possible escalation to be aware of is reports that the US Air Force has deployed a number of F-15E fighter jets to Jordan.
  • Dutch TTF is on the back foot today, given the above and as the cold spell comes to an end in some parts of Europe and as the spell in APAC begins and is perhaps not as bad as feared, evidenced by the China response being level IV (the lowest) or a 'yellow' alert, depending on the region. Benchmark is holding just below the EUR 34/MWh mark and in rough proximity to the trough from Friday.
  • Spot gold printed another ATH overnight at USD 4690/oz, as markets priced the latest tariff escalation and a deterioration in global relations over Greenland. A situation that may increase in the near-term as EU leaders debate the ACI, though the UK PM has come out and intimated that retaliatory tariffs are not the way forward.
  • Base metals are firmer, despite the downbeat risk tone. 3M LME Copper got within reach of but failed to test/breach the USD 13k/T mark.
Context

This intensifying situation could further influence market sentiment and global relations, particularly as EU leaders consider their responses. The volatility in energy markets adds another layer, as crude prices fluctuate amidst threats from Iran, suggesting broader implications for both commodities and risk assets.

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