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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Treasury futures are rangebound after rising yesterday on lower oil prices, while upside is contained as supply looms

Treasury futures are experiencing limited movement following yesterday's gains driven by lower oil prices and soft US data.

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USTs: -3.5 ticks

  • Slightly pulled back after gaining yesterday as yields softened alongside lower oil prices and weak US data releases, while demand overnight is also constrained ahead of a looming flurry of central bank rate decisions and with supply scheduled later, including a 20yr note offering stateside.

Bunds: -3 ticks

  • Trades rangebound following the recent choppy, but positive performance, in which prices return to above the 126.00 level, although further upside is capped heading into German ZEW data.

JGBs: +3 ticks

  • JGB futures trade indecisively, but are off early lows after rebounding from a brief dip beneath the 131.00 level, and with the attention turning to today's 20yr JGB auction.
Context

The presence of upcoming central bank rate decisions and new supply, including a substantial 20-year note offering, is creating a cautious sentiment among traders, likely capping any significant upside in bond prices. As we await more data—especially from the German ZEW—markets remain in a holding pattern amid these expectations.

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