[MARKET ANALYSIS] Treasury futures remain pressured on oil-related inflationary concerns

Treasury futures are under pressure due to increased inflationary concerns driven by rising oil prices, which has led market participants to adjust their expectations towards a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in October.

Newsquawk StaffPublished 23 Mar 2026, 02:56 UTCOn the live feed at 02:36 UTC, 20 minutes before this page

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD gains amid the risk-off mood and bets for an October Fed rate hike

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Treasury futures remain pressured on oil-related inflationary concerns

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USTs: -2 ticks

Retreated at the open as the initial spike higher in oil further stoked inflationary concerns, and with money market pricing leaning towards a Fed rate hike in October, although T-note futures are off the initial lows after oil faded most of the initial surge.

Bunds: -22 ticks

Tests the 125.00 level to the downside amid the oil-related inflationary concerns and as participants await ECB wage tracker EU Consumer Confidence data, while EU supply and comments from ECB's Cipollone and Lane are also scheduled later today.

JGBs: -33 ticks

Gapped lower as it played catch down on return from a 3-day weekend, with demand not helped by a lack of data and energy-related price concerns.

Context

This retreat is notable as T-note futures initially fell but have now stabilized somewhat, suggesting a complex interplay between energy costs and fixed income sentiment. Investors will be closely watching upcoming data releases and central bank comments for further direction.

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