[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD lifted as energy and yields weigh on the risk tone

Sessions of this kind, where the dollar firms on a combination of elevated crude and heavy US supply rather than fresh data, tend to be driven by positioning and terms-of-trade mechanics rather than conviction, and historically unwind quickly once a tier-1 catalyst arrives. The transmission channel here is explicit: oil works against importers like Japan through the terms of trade, pushing USD/JPY toward the kind of round level that has previously drawn official commentary and intervention speculation from Japanese authorities, which is the tell worth monitoring at these extremes. The energy-exporter distinction is also instructive: NOK and CAD failing to benefit from firm crude is a pattern seen when the bid is geopolitical-risk driven rather than demand driven, since risk premia in oil tend to lift the dollar broadly and blunt the usual petro-currency offset. The UK labour print fits the familiar sequence where headline wage strength is discounted once the public-sector composition is visible, leaving sterling's reaction modest and shifting the burden to the next inflation release. The heavy Treasury supply flagged is the type of event that has historically mattered most for the long end and for dollar funding conditions into the auction, with a poor tail tending to steepen the curve and complicate the risk backdrop further. Absent a geopolitical break in either direction, the calendar rather than the headlines is doing the work.