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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD modestly weaker to the benefit of G10s; JPY sees further BoJ sources, CHF digests CPI data

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USTs are incrementally firmer, JGBs lag on hawkish BoJ reports

[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD modestly weaker to the benefit of G10s; JPY sees further BoJ sources, CHF digests CPI data

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  • G10s are mostly firmer against the Dollar in quiet trade; JPY leads after BoJ sources overnight, CHF digests cooler-than-expected CPI, Kiwi rebounds from recent losses, and CAD underperforms. Domestic newsflow is light, and FX continues to trade in reaction to geopolitical headlines.
  • The Buck is unchanged today as it stabilises following Thursday’s gains, when DXY closed higher by 0.3%. Not really any geopolitical market-moving headlines overnight; however, the Buck was pushed lower after hawkish BoJ sources (see below). In terms of Fed speak since the close, Williams said he sees no obvious direction for rates and no reason to change them. Logan said higher rates could be needed later this year. Ahead, Daly, Bowman & Barkin are slated to speak.  Challenger layoffs and Jobless claims are also due.
  • JPY is now flat and trading in line with most G10s. Sources told Bloomberg and Reuters that the BoJ would raise rates at the June meeting, with the Bloomberg piece suggesting more tightening was possible in 2026. Markets assign 20bps of tightening in June (80% probability), with an additional 20bps implied by year-end. The BBG report saw a 35-pip move lower in USD/JPY over ten minutes, which ultimately proved fleeting, with Yen fundamentals remaining bearish and two hikes close to being fully priced this year. A strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities said: “Even if the BoJ raises rates in June, any rebound in the yen will be limited”. USD/JPY trades higher by 0.1%, a touch below the 160.00 mark.
  • CHF is performing well against the Euro and Buck after CPI metrics from Switzerland. Although a cooler-than-expected report is unlikely to shift the dial for policymakers at the SNB. This is because the headline remains towards the lower half of the 0-2% target band, and the SNB continues to make clear that inflation meets its medium-term stability objective. As such, policy is expected to remain at the ZLB for the foreseeable future. EUR/CHF -0.1% at 0.9180, USDCHF -0.1% at 0.7900.

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