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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD tracks oil prices, NZD repricing continues and Sterling unreactive to mostly in-line inflation data

The USD is experiencing mixed trading dynamics amid fluctuating oil prices and intriguing developments with US-Iran relations, which influenced sentiment across the currency markets.

Newsquawk StaffPublished On the live feed at — 5 more headlines followed before this page went public
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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed income follows energy but is relatively contained thus far, Gilts marginally underperform

[MARKET ANALYSIS] European bourses opened higher but have since trundled lower, ASM International +8% after a strong Q1 and guidance

[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD tracks oil prices, NZD repricing continues and Sterling unreactive to mostly in-line inflation data

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude ticks higher amid UKMTO reports of attacks in Hormuz; softer USD lends underpins metals

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  • FX trades mostly firmer vs the USD as oil prices chop either side of the unchanged mark following an extension of the US-Iran ceasefire.
  • DXY trades lower by a tenth after being sold on a Bloomberg headline this morning, "Iran received 'some sign' the US is ready to break the blockade", desk looked into the headline and found it was likely in relation to comments made by the UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani on Tuesday. It seems other desks were notified of this, which saw a modest and gradual reversal of the downward move. DXY lost steam at its 100 and 200 DMA (98.50) on Wednesday, and currently trades at 98.32.
  • Kiwi outperforms once again amid continued rate repricing for the RBNZ. Markets are now expecting the OCR to be raised by 85bps by year-end, with the first cut fully priced for July, and around 50/50 for the May 27th meeting. AUD/NZD trickled lower overnight and into the European morning, currently -0.2% despite Aussie holding up well amid firmer Gold prices. NOK is the only currency outperforming the bird today, helped by continued elevated oil prices, the scandi cross is higher by 0.7% and looks to 7th April highs of 0.9883. 
  • GBP modestly weakened on March inflation data, which was as expected at a headline level, while the core figures were cooler, but the all-important services lifted from the prior by more than expected. Overall, the BoE will likely be willing to wait and see for more data at this stage, as the lack of overt second-round effects means they have time to assess and weigh the growth vs inflation situation. GBP/USD is higher by a tenth of a percent and remains on a 1.35 handle. Overnight, Cable attempted a move below the aforementioned level but faltered at the 1.3503 mark. EUR/GBP trades a touch lower. At the time of writing, the cross attempts new lows near 0.8684. Following the UK inflation series, ING writes, "The latest rise in UK headline CPI tells us virtually nothing about the scale and duration of the inflation wave to come... we think the BoE will prefer to keep rates on hold this year."
Context

The NZD is notably strong, reflecting expectations of significant rate hikes from the RBNZ, while the GBP remains under pressure from mostly in-line inflation data, leading the BoE to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Overall, these trends are reshaping currency flows, with the DXY seeing downward momentum as traders digest the implications of geopolitical tensions and economic indicators.

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