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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD/JPY falls below the 162.00 handle after Japanese official denies reports that the government is pushing for lower rates

Newsquawk Staff ·

  • DXY rotates in a narrow 100.80-100.91 range. Similar to crude benchmarks, the dollar index was unfazed following the reports of IRGC strikes on commercial ships. Despite the pullback in recent days, recent CFTC data shows that aggregate dollar long increased by USD 5.6bln to just shy of USD 40bln, the biggest dollar long in over a decade.
  • EUR/USD lacks any clear direction, oscillating in a 1.1437-1.1448 range. Focus this week remains on the Fed and ECB minutes, as traders get to interpret how much of a divergence the two central banks’ rate paths are.
  • GBP/USD finds a ceiling at 1.3400; however, it is still testing the key level for a potential break to the upside. In comparison to its G7 peers (ex. US), CFTC data showed GBP was the most in-demand currency, with USD 3.6k of buying. 
  • USD/JPY held comfortably above the 162.00 handle at the start of the session before coming under brief pressure after comments by Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi, rejecting reports that the government is pushing for lower rates. USD/JPY fell c. 40 pips to a trough of 161.69 before paring back the majority of the move. Wage data also came out, in which nominal wages printed at 3.2%, weaker than expectations, but held above 3% for a fourth straight month; however, no move was seen in the JPY.
  • Antipodeans trade flat, with the Kiwi trading either side of 0.5700 ahead of the RBNZ policy announcement on Wednesday, in which a 25bp rate hike to 2.50% is expected.

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