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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD/JPY trades choppy but remains above 159; DXY pares back earlier gains following better-than-expected China trade data

The recent fluctuations in USD/JPY, which has held above 159 despite choppy trading, reflect the market's reaction to stronger-than-expected Chinese trade data alongside strategic developments regarding China’s potential agreements with the U.S.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] USD/JPY trades choppy but remains above 159; DXY pares back earlier gains following better-than-expected China trade data

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  • DXY briefly extended Tuesday’s gains, peaking at 99.25, before reversing and returning below 99.20 following stronger Chinese trade data. This also came alongside WSJ source reports that incentives under consideration by Chinese officials to woo the US into a strategic retreat from the Taiwan Strait include Beijing potentially agreeing to buy billions of USD in long-term Treasurys.
  • EUR/USD trades flat, oscillating in a 1.1636–1.1646 range as traders prepare for US PPI and Retail Sales. 
  • GBP/USD outperforms its European counterpart, gradually bid higher from a trough of 1.3418 to session highs of 1.3440, aided by a weaker dollar. 
  • USD/JPY comfortably holds above 159 but has traded choppily throughout the Asia-Pac session thus far with no clear direction. After selling off to a trough of 159.09 in early trade, the pair reversed and extended to a peak of 159.46 before paring back most of the move. 
  • The Antipodeans outperform their G7 peers, with AUD/USD and NZD/USD up around 0.2%, aided by strength across the metals space, with spot silver and 3M LME copper reaching new ATHs. 
  • CNY trades strongly against the greenback following the Chinese trade data, with exports and the trade balance (in USD terms) beating market estimates.
Context

This suggests an ongoing interplay between risk sentiment and the dollar's strength, especially as traders await upcoming U.S. PPI and Retail Sales data, which could further clarify the outlook for the DXY and related currency pairs.

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