[MARKET ANALYSIS] USTs slightly softer pre-Fed, Bunds await supply, JGBs bid overnight
Newsquawk Staff ·
- JGBs were bid overnight. Initial gains were exacerbated by a strong 40yr auction, which helped lift the benchmark to a 131.77 peak with gains of just under 50 ticks at best. That aside, focus was on the commentary from Trump around Japan and China always wanting to devalue their currencies. Remarks which may have weighed on Japanese yields from the start of trade.
- USTs treaded water overnight in the typical pre-FOMC holding pattern. Since, a bout of pressure has emerged with USTs down to a 111-21 base, lower by 4+ ticks at most. For the Fed, the full Newsquawk preview is available, rates are expected to be unchanged in the 3.50-3.75% band, focus will be on the number of dissents, any change to the statement language around the labour market and/or additional adjustments. From Chair Powell, the focus will be on how he frames the hold and any commentary around the neutral rate, in that context.
- Elsewhere, the WSJ reported overnight on the four Fed Chair finalists, with individuals cited reportedly concerned that none of the finalists fully satisfy Trump's requirements.
- Bunds have been grinding higher across the morning. To a 128.12 peak as, despite strong ASML earnings, European sentiment finds itself on the backfoot, ex-AEX, with pressure in heavyweights such as LVMH. For Europe, ex-equities, the docket is light. No move to ECB speakers thus far, who have stuck to the script. For Bunds, we await results from a 10yr auction shortly.
- Gilts opened higher by 10 ticks, at a 91.11 peak, before fading back to the figure where it remains. As such, the benchmark is near-enough flat on the day with UK specifics light and the bias likely a contained one into the Fed.
What it means
The U.S. Treasuries (USTs) are seeing slight downward pressure as the market awaits the Fed's FOMC meeting, trading in a typical pre-meeting holding pattern. Meanwhile, Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) have experienced gains due to a strong auction, but Trump's commentary about currency devaluation pressures may weigh on yields. Bunds are edging higher in a subdued European market ahead of an upcoming auction, indicating mixed sentiments across sovereign bonds as investors prepare for significant central bank guidance.
- US Midterms Cheat Sheet for Traders
- Newsquawk US Market Wrap - Stocks mixed on AI rebound ahead of US midterms
- Israel has shared intelligence with the US asserting that Iran is considering the use of chemical weapons against its adversaries, information met with alarm by some American officials and deep skepticism by others, NYT reports citing sources
- Israeli PM Netanyahu was reportedly the one who proposed to US President Trump the ending of financial aid to Israel, N13 reports citing sources
- US EQUITY OPEN: Tech pares back some recent losses as US/Iran negotiations and US midterms are in focus
Related headlines
- Newsquawk Daily Economic Releases - 4th November 20265 days ago
- TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (Z6) SETTLE 11+ TICKS LOWER AT 106-165 days ago
- Eight tankers carrying 300,800 tonnes of Russian diesel are being monitored on potential voyages to the US, with seven declaring the US as their destination and arrivals expected from November 7th, according to Ukrainian sources cited by an RFE journalist5 days ago
- US FX WRAP: Dollar sees two-way trade on geopols as US midterms await 5 days ago
- Sources close to the White House report a divisiveness in the Trump administration's approach to Iran, reports ILNA5 days ago
- US and Venezuela discuss fresh aluminium cargo amid trade revival, reports Bloomberg5 days ago
- Amgen Inc. (AMGN) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 6.45 (exp. 5.79), Revenue 10.4bln (exp. 10.07bln), Adj. operating income 4.7bln (exp. 4.33bln)5 days ago
- [ANALYSIS] US Midterms: Senate, Governor and PUC indicative timings5 days ago
- Meta (META) launches USD 15bln 5-parter: 5yr, 7yr, 10yr, 20yr, 30yr5 days ago
- ECB’s Sleijpen says the Iran shock is more persistent than earlier thought but we don’t really see second-round effects yet5 days ago
- Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.66 (exp. 4.49), Revenue 8.9bln (exp. 9.55bln)5 days ago
- Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.09 (exp. 1.95), Revenue 13.4bln (exp. 13.1bln)5 days ago
- The Mosaic Company (MOS) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.19 (exp. -0.01), Revenue 3.1bln (exp. 3.05bln)5 days ago
- Arista Networks Inc. (ANET) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.20 (exp. 1.08), Revenue 3.66bln (exp. 3.33bln)5 days ago
- ECB’s Nagel says he is confident that France will get a grip on its budget issues; This isn't a task for monetary policy5 days ago