[MARKET ANALYSIS] WTI and Brent contained by Trump's tariffs with focus on US-Iran talks this week

• Crude benchmarks are more subdued in the early European session as the market continued to digest Trump’s 15% tariff decision in response to SCOTUS’ striking down his IEEPA tariffs. It’s worth noting that crude benchmarks have had their best year thus far since 2022 (the same year Russia invaded Ukraine), and as geopolitical tension continues to persist, US-Iran talks are set to resume this week.
• Latest updates include US President Trump reportedly considering a targeted strike on Iran, followed by a larger attack and is open to deposing the Supreme Leader by force if Iran is stubborn, according to NYT. Iran has responded that any US attacks, including limited strikes, will be considered an act of aggression. In the other geopolitical news between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces struck Ukrainian transport, energy and fuel infrastructure. WTI Apr'26 and Brent May'26 are trading at a tight range of USD 65.38-66.30/bbl and 70.28-71.14/bbl, respectively.

Crude oil prices are subdued as markets process Trump's new tariff implications amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran. With talks resuming this week and threats of military action, the market is likely on edge regarding supply disruptions, which could drive volatility in crude prices. The focus remains on how these developments affect the broader energy market, especially given recent highs in crude benchmarks stemming from geopolitical crises, notably the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.