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[MARKET ANALYSIS] WTI and Brent rangebound with geopols in focus

WTI and Brent crude oil prices are currently rangebound, with a focus on ongoing geopolitical discussions involving the US, Iran, and the Ukraine conflict.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] WTI and Brent rangebound with geopols in focus

UK sells GBP 500mln 0.125% 2028 Gilt via Tender: b/c 4.05x (prev. 3.77x), average yield 3.336% (prev. 3.443%), tail 0.7bps (prev. 0.6bps)

German ZEW Current Conditions (Feb) -65.9 vs. Exp. -65.7 (Prev. -72.7, Low. -71.1, High. -65)

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  • WTI Mar'26 and Brent Apr'26 are trading around the lower range of USD 62.84-63.60/bbl and USD 67.85-68.81/bbl, respectively. WTI currently firmer by USD 0.40/bbl, whilst Brent is off by around USD 0.55/bbl - divergence given the lack of settlement for the former, on account of President Day holiday on Monday.
  • Focus for oil traders is on meetings between the US and Iran and the trilateral talks between Russia, US and Ukraine. At the time of writing, the trilateral talks have concluded with talks set to resume tomorrow.
  • More focus is arguably on the US-Iran talks, given there is some chance that the US could strike Iran if talks break down – though analysts believe that the most likely outcome is not a full deal today but a decision to keep talks alive. (Full analysis piece can be found on the Newsquawk feed)
  • Ahead of the meeting, Al Arabiya reported that "Iran approves IAEA visit to nuclear facilities" - an update which spurred modest pressure in Brent Apr'26, leading the contract to fall below the USD 68/bbl mark. This ultimately proved fleeting, with Brent now trading back towards USD 68.20/bbl. Elsewhere, an Iranian Official said that Iran's approach to US talks are positive and serious, but holds no preconception about the outcome.
  • Elsewhere, an oil tank was reportedly burning in the village of Volna in Krasnador Krai after an attack by the Ukrainian armed forces, according to Tass.
Context

The potential for escalated tensions, especially surrounding US-Iran talks, could impact supply dynamics and market sentiment, making oil traders watch closely for developments. This backdrop may cause volatility if the talks yield unexpected impacts on supply or geopolitical stability.

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