[MARKET ANALYSIS] WTI and Brent trade slightly lower as geopolitics remain quiet; IEA cut 2026 global oil demand growth and nudged lower supply growth forecasts
WTI and Brent prices are slightly lower today, reflecting a lack of geopolitical catalysts to support previous gains, despite some tension-related news.
Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin to fall to USD 50k, and Ethereum to fall to USD 1.4k in the "next few months"; cuts its year-end forecast to USD 100k (prev. saw 150k), year-end Ethereum forecast to USD 4k (prev. USD 7.5k)
Ukraine's Air Force warns of a likely launch of Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile
[MARKET ANALYSIS] WTI and Brent trade slightly lower as geopolitics remain quiet; IEA cut 2026 global oil demand growth and nudged lower supply growth forecasts
NBP's Kotecki says March is a good time for more rate cuts
US President Trump administration expands efforts to revoke US citizenship for foreign born Americans, as it works to curb immigration
Open the platform and use it. The whole workspace is free to try, with no signup and no card. When you want the headlines arriving live instead of on a delay, Newsquawk Pro is £24.99 for 7 days.
- WTI and Brent currently trade within a USD 64.44-64.54/bbl and USD 69.19-69.26/bbl range, respectively. Recent gains were a function of heightened geopolitical tension, after US President Trump threatened to send another carrier to the Middle East if talks with Tehran do not go well. However, not much on the geopolitical front this morning or overnight to keep prices underpinned. There was a report by the RIA that an oil refinery caught fire in Russia due to a drone attack, although this failed to move the crude complex.
- Outside of geopolitics, the market saw forecasts from the IEA for global oil demand: 850k BPD (prev. 930k BPD), and cut the 2026 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.4mln BPD (prev. 2.5mln BPD). The IEA cited escalating geopolitical tensions, snowstorms and extreme temperatures in North America, and Kazakh supply disruptions sparked the reversal to a bullish market earlier this year. However, there wasn’t much of a reaction to the crude complex following the release. The OPEC MOMR and EIA STEO also failed to spark much action yesterday. Note, during the early European mid-morning, the crude complex saw pressure at around USD 0.50/bbl with no specific fundamental catalyst.
The IEA's downgrade of both global oil demand growth and supply growth forecasts suggests a more cautious outlook for the crude market, but the muted market reaction indicates that traders are likely focused on other factors, possibly waiting for clearer signals before taking significant positions.
Related headlines
- US Daily Equity Opening News - MSFT to report quarterly Azure sales; AVGO and HPE fall on outlooks; SNOW surges on earnings beat1 hour ago
- US EQUITY OPEN: Dovish Waller helps push indices higher although AVGO guidance underwhelms1 hour ago
- US President Trump clarifies that Commerce Secretary Lutnick had Venezuela on his mind when he said nobody was killed, adds that 18 people were killed in Iran3 hours ago
- US President Trump posts image of 20mln BPD through the Hormuz vs. 18mln BPD before3 hours ago
- PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes: Waller, Hammack, Goolsbee3 hours ago
- Ukrainian Navy says it struck a Russian support vessel in Sochi port3 hours ago
- Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russia's gas supplies to China will reach 50bln cubic metres this year, reports Tass3 hours ago
- Israeli Defence Minister Katz says the military will target all of Iran's infrastructure, including energy; an Iranian attack would free Israel from its existing limits4 hours ago
- US President Trump's administration is reportedly ratcheting up its fight to get more oil flowing from California, AP News reports41 min ago
- Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russia is experiencing some gasoline shortages4 hours ago
- [MARKET UPDATE] Dovish reaction as Fed's Waller leans towards hold in September, albeit very much data dependent; T-notes, stocks and gold move higher with the dollar sold; Pricing is back to 50/50 for hold/hike1 hour ago
- Fed's Waller (voter) to support holding policy rate steady at September FOMC meeting if August inflation data shows continued progress2 hours ago
- BoJ accounts show there was no large-scale yen intervention on Wednesday5 hours ago
- Fed Governor Waller (Voter) says with CPI and PPI in hand, have a pretty accurate view of PCE inflation2 hours ago
- Nvidia (NVDA) confirms it is to acquire Hugging Face for USD 12.93bln; Hugging Face will remain an open platform2 hours ago
- [MARKET UPDATE] Gradual strength in the crude complex has put pressure on the fixed income space, with US equity futures also moving a touch lower; action which lacks a clear driver4 hours ago
- Campbell's (CPB) Q4 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.39 (exp. 0.40), revenue 2.14bln (exp. 2.15bln). Cuts quarterly dividend to accelerate debt reduction 3 hours ago
- US Trade Balance (Jul) -88.60B vs. Exp. -90B (Prev. -73.30B)2 hours ago
- Polestar (PSNY) Q2 2026 (USD): Revenue 727mln (exp. 865mln)3 hours ago
- Ciena (CIEN) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.11 (exp. 1.72), Revenue 1.67bln (exp. 1.63bln), sees FY26 revenue 6.42 (exp. 6.34bln)3 hours ago
The whole workspace, free to try.
Try it free