[MARKET ANALYSIS] WTI and Brent trade slightly lower as geopolitics remain quiet; IEA cut 2026 global oil demand growth and nudged lower supply growth forecasts

• WTI and Brent currently trade within a USD 64.44-64.54/bbl and USD 69.19-69.26/bbl range, respectively. Recent gains were a function of heightened geopolitical tension, after US President Trump threatened to send another carrier to the Middle East if talks with Tehran do not go well. However, not much on the geopolitical front this morning or overnight to keep prices underpinned. There was a report by the RIA that an oil refinery caught fire in Russia due to a drone attack, although this failed to move the crude complex.
• Outside of geopolitics, the market saw forecasts from the IEA for global oil demand: 850k BPD (prev. 930k BPD), and cut the 2026 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.4mln BPD (prev. 2.5mln BPD). The IEA cited escalating geopolitical tensions, snowstorms and extreme temperatures in North America, and Kazakh supply disruptions sparked the reversal to a bullish market earlier this year. However, there wasn’t much of a reaction to the crude complex following the release. The OPEC MOMR and EIA STEO also failed to spark much action yesterday. Note, during the early European mid-morning, the crude complex saw pressure at around USD 0.50/bbl with no specific fundamental catalyst.

WTI and Brent prices are slightly lower today, reflecting a lack of geopolitical catalysts to support previous gains, despite some tension-related news. The IEA's downgrade of both global oil demand growth and supply growth forecasts suggests a more cautious outlook for the crude market, but the muted market reaction indicates that traders are likely focused on other factors, possibly waiting for clearer signals before taking significant positions.