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[MARKET ANALYSIS] WTI and Brent trades firmer as risk premium from geopolitical development between the US and Iran continue

Newsquawk Staff ·

  • Crude benchmarks remain mostly firmer amid the ongoing geopolitical update between the US and Iran over the last few week which has seen a gradual escalation over recent weeks. 
  • WTI and Brent trade at the upper end of their respective USD 66.16-66.95/bbl and USD 70.87-71.78/bbl, ranges. The latest update from the ongoing US-Iran conflict includes US President Trump, last night, saying, "If we don't make a deal, it will be a very bad day for Iran”. Later, a report by CBS highlighted that US President Trump is growing frustrated by the limited military options against Iran, with advisers warning that strikes may not be decisive and risk escalating the conflict. In the other geopolitical news between Russia and Ukraine, Ukrainian President Zelensky say they will do everything necessary to ensure a strong and lasting peace. Newsflow this morning lacking, but we remain attentive to any updates. 
  • Elsewhere in the energy space, Britain imposed new sanctions on Russia’s Transneft oil operation. Last night, news broke that Chevron entered exclusive talks to take over Lukoil’s stake in Iraq’s West Kerner II oil field as US sanctions pressure the Russian firm to divest.

What it means

Crude oil prices for WTI and Brent are strengthening as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalate. The uncertainty surrounding the possibility of a military response adds a risk premium to oil prices, impacting market sentiment and suggesting heightened volatility ahead. Traders should monitor developments closely, as any significant moves in the US-Iran situation could have further implications for energy markets and related assets.

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