[MARKET ANALYSIS] XAU trades muted ahead of NFP and potential tariff decision

• Spot XAU started the Asia-Pac session on the backfoot, slowly falling from USD 4484/oz to USD 4453/oz, before oscillating in a tight c. USD 25/oz band as the European morning continues as markets await the highly-anticipated NFP report and the potential SCOTUS tariff decision.
• Market expectations for the December NFP print is 60k, with JPM forecasting an inline to slightly stronger print. In regards to the tariff decision, Polymarket is pricing in a 74% chance of the Supreme Court to rule against the IEEPA-imposed tariffs.
• After 2 days of selling from its ATH at USD 13.39k/t, 3M LME Copper has started to rebound from Thursday’s trough of USD 12.52k/t and is currently trading at USD 12.92k/t as the European session continues. The recent selloff in red metal comes amid a selloff in the tech-heavy NQ, with copper being a much-needed material in the semiconductor space.

The muted trading in XAU as we await the NFP report signals cautious sentiment ahead of economic data that could shift market dynamics. With expectations for the NFP print around 60k, a stronger-than-forecast number may bolster the USD and pressure gold prices further. Additionally, the Supreme Court's upcoming tariff decision adds another layer of uncertainty, potentially impacting not just gold but broader market sentiment.