[MARKET UPDATE] Dollar remains afloat after recent mild gains and as GDP and PCE data loom

DXY: +0.2%

• Dollar is marginally firmer in rangebound trade amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and after the recent slew of data. There were also relatively hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Miran, who now sees a less accommodative rate path and said he would pencil in 100bps of cuts this year, instead of the 150 bps he submitted at the December forecast round, while the attention turns to upcoming key data including Q4 GDP and December PCE price index.

EUR/USD: -0.1%

• Remains lacklustre after trickling beneath 1.1800 handle, with the single currency not helped by recent weaker-than-expected Consumer Confidence data and with Eurozone PMIs scheduled later.

GBP/USD: -0.2%

• Languishes at its lowest levels in almost a month at sub-1.3500 territory, with UK retail sales and PMI data on the horizon. There were also some recent mixed comments from BoE's Mann who provided very little to inspire the pound as she stated they are getting close to some sense of where monetary policy is balanced between the inflation objective and full employment, but added that the unemployment rate has gone up which is very much of a concern, and that January inflation data are good numbers from a headline perspective, although core inflation was not quite as good as hoped.

USD/JPY: +0.1%

• Lingers near the prior day's best levels north of 155.00, with some mild support seen as the cooling of Japanese inflation essentially provides the BoJ additional policy space.

Antipodeans: AUD/USD -0.5% / NZD/USD -0.5%

• Antipodeans underperform their major counterparts and breached through the prior day's trough with amid headwinds from the mostly downbeat risk appetite.

The dollar’s recent gains come amid geopolitical tensions and a shift in Fed outlook, with Governor Miran adjusting rate cut expectations to 100bps instead of 150bps for the year. As we approach key data points like Q4 GDP and December PCE, the market may see increased volatility in the USD, particularly against softer currencies such as the euro and pound, which are facing their own headwinds. Traders should be cautious as these developments could influence both rates and the broader risk sentiment.