[MARKET UPDATE]: Geopolitical risk-on trade seen after reports US seeks "step-by-step" agreement with Iran; downside in Dollar and oil, with upside in stocks, Treasuries, and spot gold

The step-by-step framing matters, because phased processes of this kind have tended to generate repeated headline-driven swings in both directions: each step, review, or congressional and regional reaction re-prices the probability of the full sequence being completed, and past episodes have seen initial risk-on moves partially retraced when verification or sequencing disputes emerged. The notable feature here is Treasuries and gold rising alongside stocks rather than selling off, a pattern consistent with the market treating de-escalation as disinflationary through the oil channel, pulling yields down at the belly, rather than as pure risk-on. Oil's response in comparable episodes has typically been front-loaded in the front of the curve, with the larger second-order question being whether any agreement implies incremental Iranian barrels returning to market. Follow-ons worth watching are confirmation or denial from either side, any detail on what the first step covers, and whether the dollar's weakness extends against the European and Japanese crosses or fades as a positioning move.