[MARKET UPDATE] Oil retreats from surge as lack of fresh escalation and tariff woes prompt profit-taking heading into the weekend

Geopolitical risk premia in crude have historically been built and unwound on the escalation cadence rather than the underlying conflict level: prices spike on fresh strikes and bleed lower on quiet sessions even when the backdrop is unresolved, and Friday profit-taking ahead of an unhedgeable weekend is a well-established pattern in active conflict episodes. The distinction worth drawing is between a ceasefire-driven unwind, which historically strips the premium quickly, and a consolidation on absent headlines, which tends to leave the floor under prices intact given the rejected proposals described here keep supply risk live. The tariff overlay transmits through the demand side, historically pressuring base metals and the industrial complex more than energy itself, which fits the split between soft crude and a copper market failing to rally on cheaper energy. The Hormuz dimension is the asymmetry: episodes involving transit risk have tended to reprice freight, insurance and prompt spreads well before any physical disruption. What bears watching is whether the pullback holds through weekend headlines, how Monday's open treats any diplomatic follow-through on the ceasefire tracks, and the level at which political pressure on Washington resurfaces, which past episodes suggest acts as a soft ceiling on the premium.