Newsquawk Daily US Opening News - 10th August 2026

• US President Trump told Axios that they are only semi-negotiating with Iran but said it will work out and that it always works out.
• Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued six demands to the US, including total force withdrawal, end to proxy warfare.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Iran is currently focused on the Strait of Hormuz rather than resuming negotiations with the US, while adding that talks with Oman are constructive and positive
• US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming as strong TSMC July revenue lifts tech names.
• DXY slightly firmer; JPY reverses post-NFP gains despite hawkish BoJ Summary of Opinions.
• Fixed income flat; Energy benchmarks slightly firmer as Iran issues demands.
• Looking ahead, highlights include comments from Fed's Hammack.

SNAPSHOT

STOCKS
Euro Stoxx 50	+0.2%	DAX40	+0.1%
Stoxx 600	U/C	FTSE 100	-0.4%
ES Sep'26	+0.2%	RTY Sep'26	-0.1%
NQ Sep'26	+0.5%	YM Sep'26	U/C

FX
DXY	+0.1% (99.65)	EUR/USD	U/C (1.1561)
USD/JPY	+0.6% (158.69)	GBP/USD	+0.1% (1.3504)

BONDS
US T-Note Sep'26	+1 tick	Bund Sep'26	-2 ticks
US 10yr Yield	4.654%	German 10yr Yield	3.137%

ENERGY & METALS
WTI Sep'26	+0.7%	Brent Oct'26	+0.7%
Spot Gold	+0.1%	LME Copper	+0.5%

CRYPTO
Bitcoin	+0.4%	Ethereum	+0.7%

As of 10:25BST / 05:25EDT

LOOKING AHEAD

• Highlights include comments from Fed's Hammack.
• Click here for the Week Ahead preview

IRAN CONFLICT

WEEKEND HEADLINES

• US President Trump told Axios that they are only semi-negotiating with Iran and are just watching Iran with its huge inflation, while he stressed that Iran is in very bad shape economically and has no money to pay its troops, with the US naval blockade exacerbating the Iranian regime's economic crisis. However, he said it will work out and that it always works out, as well as compared it to a chess game regarding the back-and-forth with Iran.
• US Vice President JD Vance said the US is in the middle of a game in the Iran conflict.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said now is the best time for an agreement because Iran is strong, united and seen as victorious in war. Pezeshkian separately commented on Friday that they will not yield to force, but are not seeking war or aggression either, while he added there will be no reason for the tension to continue if the pressure and threats against Iran stop. Furthermore, he said there was no gap between the government and the armed forces, as well as noted that Iran had solved many problems with its neighbours and relations had improved significantly.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran and the US are not engaged in talks, and Tehran will not allow them to start as long as Washington breaches the interim deal signed in June.
• Iran said it is very close to a deal with Oman regarding a new maritime transit route in the Strait of Hormuz, but it renewed a list of demands for the US to agree to before the waterway could open. It was separately reported that Iran warned it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless the US meets a series of conditions, including paying compensation for war damage, according to FT.
• Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued six demands to the US, including total force withdrawal, end to proxy warfare, financial reparations, sanctions and asset relief, lifting the blockade and cessation of rhetoric.
• The wait for the Iran-Oman deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz dragged on, with Iran warning the US that any pact wouldn’t lead to an immediate reopening of the key waterway.
• UKMTO reported that a vessel near Oman was struck by an unknown projectile, which caused a fire on board but has been extinguished.
• Saudi Arabia put out a fire at its Jazan plant early on Sunday, while Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack on the refinery. It was separately reported that Houthis resumed attacking Yemen’s Mocha port using ballistic missiles and drones, with the attacks aimed at Saudi troop concentrations and weapon depots in the region.
• Israel again targeted Alia Al-Tahir Hill in the Al-Nabatiyeh a governorate in southern Lebanon with artillery fire, according to IRNA
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel does not accept a US-backed 15-point plan for Gaza, under which Hamas would disarm in exchange for a phased Israeli withdrawal from the Palestinian enclave, according to FT.
• US official said the White House is not bothered by Israeli PM Netanyahu's statement on Gaza plan and sees it as part of election season in Israel, according to Axios

EUROPEAN UPDATES

• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said talks with Oman are constructive and positive, saying Tehran did not address the issue of fees in the discussions with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, but it is natural to collect fees for services received. He added that Iran is currently focused on the Strait of Hormuz rather than resuming negotiations with the US. Furthermore, Baghaei said Iran has demanded compensation for damage caused by the US-Israel war, while the Strait of Hormuz could reopen if no third party interferes.
• The Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee on Sunday approved the general outlines of a bill to manage the Strait of Hormuz, according to ISNA.

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses begin the week relatively muted, on a quiet earnings and data docket. No major geopolitical updates over the weekend either; Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued six demands to the US, including total force withdrawal and ending proxy warfare. More recently, the Iranian Foreign Minister Baghaei said they are currently focused on the Strait of Hormuz rather than resuming negotiations with the US.
• Sectors tilt negatively. Tech tops the sector pile, helped by TSMC's July revenue figures (+44.7% Y/Y). Following another strong month of sales, analysts are now estimating a 46.8% revenue increase for Q3, proving that demand for AI hardware remains firm. Other sector gainers include Basic Resources and Energy. On the other side, Media is the sector laggard, with Food, Beverages & Tobacco and Retail rounding out the sector underperformers.
• US equity futures are mixed, with a slight positive tilt as the NQ outperforms. Focus this week in the US will be earnings from Supermicro and CoreWeave on Tuesday, and the inflation print on Wednesday.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

FX

• Mixed performance across G10s, JPY leading declines while the GBP is the gainer alongside the Antipodeans.
• USD overnight attempted to claw back NFP losses, peaking at 99.70, though the modest rally (as much as +0.2%) came under pressure since the EU open, with the DXY returning back to unch. around 99.60. Focus this week will overwhelmingly be on the CPI print, especially since FT sources last week suggested Warsh was focused on the inflation side of the mandate heading into the September meeting. On that note, market bets for tightening remain trimmed vs. Friday, with the OIS curve implying ~22% probability of a hike, around half of that seen pre-data. Today's calendar is light, though remarks are expected from hawk Hammack.
• A continued UK narrative of "no news is good news" with UK Parliament on recess and PM Burnham trickle-feeding incremental cost-of-living policies. GBP carry remains attractive, and, combined with technicals, a strong REC/KPMG jobs number is helping Cable today, which recently lifted above 1.35, with EUR/GBP supported just above 0.8560 - EZ drivers light with a strong Sentix survey not sparking a reaction. EUR incrementally firmer against most CEE, with the week's calendar highlighted by Polish/Turkish/Czech inflation.
• JPY is the clear underperformer, USD/JPY around 30 pips higher than the US payrolls release. Pressure which lacks a clear driver, with BoJ's summary of opinions hawkish leaning "could be considered that the pace of policy interest rate hikes will have to be faster than market expectations". However, MUFG writes retail short USD/JPY positions have "probably" been liquidated. Participants are now potentially turning to a carry strategy, which could be seen as more attractive than chasing the pair lower at these levels. USD/JPY looks towards 159.00, currently 20-30 pips off that mark.

FIXED INCOME

• A contained start to the session for fixed income. With specifics for the space very light, the docket ahead is particularly thin, though it does pick up later in the week with US inflation prints, and as geopolitical uncertainty continues in what is beginning to feel somewhat like summer markets.
• USTs are flat in a thin sub-10 tick range. The docket ahead is very light, aside from Fed’s Hammack (2026, Hawk) who speaks to Yahoo. More generally, we await an update on the geopolitical front (see Commodities for details). Thereafter, the week is headlined by CPI, which draws focus after recent Fed commentary and particularly last week’s FT source reports, which placed the focus even more on near-term inflation prints; a point also exacerbated after the weak NFP report last week, which pared end-2026 hiking expectations.
• Bunds also flat, but have meandered through a c. 30 tick range, but yet to deviate lastingly from the 125.00 region. No move to the morning’s EZ Sentix for August, which printed much better than expected, driven by the current-conditions index, while the expectations component only increased marginally. More generally, the index shows that “Globally, the signs continue to point to a boom”, with all regions ex-Japan improving in August.
• Gilts opened with gains of just a few ticks, before pairing and moving to unchanged in-fitting with peers. As above, UK specifics are very light, aside from the usual political reporting around PM Burnham and potential smaller measures he may take in the weeks and months ahead, with specific reference to the cost of living. Currently, the benchmark is flat in 87.34-62 confines, well within Friday’s 87.09-80 band.

COMMODITIES

• WTI Sept and Brent Oct futures hold a mild positive bias as US-Iran geopolitics remain uncertain, although gains remain capped as no direct military firings or airstrikes were exchanged between the US and Iranian forces over the weekend. To briefly recap, the US, Iran, and Oman are negotiating a temporary plan to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran says no immediate reopening is guaranteed. Iran is demanding major concessions, while disputes remain over banning US/Israeli ships and imposing transit fees under an Oman-Iran traffic-management deal. WTI resides in a USD 77.79-79.42/bbl range (vs Friday’s 76.53-78.77/bbl parameter). Brent trades within a USD 83.33-84.97/bbl range (vs Friday’s USD 81.50-84.44/bbl range).
• Dutch TTF has posted larger gains as the Middle Eastern concern is compounded by EU gas storage levels entering August at a historically low 55% capacity. Dutch TTF trades up almost 4% at the time of writing, north of EUR 57.50/MWh.
• Metals are firmer in continuation of Friday’s NFP-driven upside and amidst relatively stable oil prices and a lack of fresh geopolitics. Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 4,313-4,362/oz range, within Friday’s USD 4,230-4,372/oz range. 3M LME copper holds above USD 14k/t in a USD 14,033.98- 14,161.93/t, with little impact seen from the weekend’s soft Chinese inflation report.
• Kazakhstan is considering using the BTC and Baku-Supsa pipelines and the Trans-Caspian route via Azerbaijan, for oil exports amid disruptions to the CPC, according to IFX.
• UAE's ADNOC Gas is planning to invest over USD 8bln as part of its expansion push, according to the WSJ.
• Hungarian PM said rising Danube water levels have allowed Paks nuclear power plant to begin reverting one turbine to its original state.
• Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry said export disruptions could create a grain storage capacity shortfall of around 11mln T this autumn.
• UK regulators are readying a framework for tokenised gold as part of plans to encourage digitalisation of financial markets and safeguard London's dominance in global bullion trading, according to FT

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• Germany Economy Minister Reiche warned that rising support for the far-right AfD could undermine the government’s efforts to attract foreign investors, as it seeks at least EUR 3.75tln in private capital by 2040, according to FT.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

• EZ Sentix (Aug) 0.9 vs. exp. -0.7 (prev. -3.1).
• Norwegian Core CPI (Jul YY) 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%).
• Norwegian Core CPI (Jul MM) 0.8% (Prev. -0.1%).
• Norwegian CPI (Jul YY) 3.0% (Prev. 2.7%).
• Norwegian CPI (Jul MM) 1.0% (Prev. -0.2%).

CENTRAL BANKS

• BoJ Summary of Opinions from the July meeting stated that a member said Middle East Development, expanding AI-related demand and weak yen all work towards pushing up inflation, while a member said consumer goods inflation is expected to pick up again towards autumn. Furthermore, a member said policymakers should stay alert to upside inflation risks from a weak yen and strong AI-related demand, while there was also the opinion that inflation risks are skewed sharply upward as higher oil costs feed into consumer prices, and global AI demand and Japan's expansionary fiscal policy support demand.

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• Russia struck two oil refineries in Ukraine's northeastern Sumy region, according to Interfax. It was separately reported that Ukraine’s Odesa port sustained damage from a Russian attack, while Russian authorities said five were killed in a Ukrainian drone attack on Belgorod.
• US President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and Kushner may visit Kyiv and Moscow within the next 7-10 days, according to TASS.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin trades on a firmer footing and has regained the USD 65k mark.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were somewhat mixed, but with most major indices in the green, following last Friday's gains on Wall Street, where weak jobs data unwound Fed rate hike bets, while oil prices gained in the absence of a formal Strait of Hormuz deal, and participants also digested soft Chinese inflation data.
• ASX 200 was lower amid declines in the top-weighted financial sector following earnings from Westpac, while participants also look ahead to tomorrow's RBA rate decision, with the central bank widely expected to keep rates on hold, but continue to echo a hawkish tone.
• Nikkei 225 rallied as participants digested the recent slew of earnings, with the top gainers in the index driven by their quarterly earnings results.
• KOSPI traded higher but with upside capped amid the somewhat choppy price action in tech heavyweights and as participants also reflect on earnings releases.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were in the green, albeit with gains in the mainland contained following softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data over the weekend. Nonetheless, the data is seen to keep prospects of a rate cut in H2 on the table, while the PBoC said on Sunday that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in H2, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, and take solid steps to promote sustained and improved economic development.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP

• Chinese CPI MM (Jul) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.3%).
• Chinese CPI YY (Jul) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 1.0%).
• Chinese PPI YY (Jul) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 4.1%).
• Japanese Eco Watchers Survey Current (Jul) 45.7 vs. Exp. 44.4 (Prev. 44.0).
• Japanese Economy Watchers Survey Outlook (Jul) 45.8 (Prev. 45.7).