OPEC MOMR: 2026 world oil demand remains at 1.4mln BPD (unchanged from the Dec MOMR), 2027 world oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3mln BPD Y/Y

World Oil Supply:

2026 non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6mln BPD Y/Y, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers.
2027 non-DoC liquids production is also forecast to grow by 0.6mln BPD, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina.
Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1mln BPD Y/Y in 2026, to average about 8.8mln BPD, followed by a similar increase in 2027 of about 0.1mlnn BPD Y/Y to average about 8.9mln BPD.
Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 238k BPD in December, M/M, to average about 42.83mln BPD, according to available secondary sources.

Balance of Supply and Demand

2026 demand for DoC crude remains unchanged from prior month's assessment of 43mln BPD, 0.6mln BPD higher than 2025.
2027 demand for DoC crude expected to reach 43.6mln BPD, 0.6mln BPD higher than the 2026 forecast.

Crude and Refined Product Trade

In December, US crude imports were broadly unchanged from the previous month at just under 6mln BPD. Crude exports rose by almost 10% M/M in December. US product exports broadly unchanged.
OECD Europe crude imports increased M/M in November. Product imports continued to decline M/M., product exports rose to the upper end of the 5-year range.
Japan crude imports rose further in November, averaging 2.4mln BPD, supported by regional product demand. Product outflows increased 6%, driven primarily by fuel oil.
China crude imports rose in November to the highest since 2023, averaging 12.4mln BPD, gain of around 9% M/M. Product imports saw strength, led by naphtha and fuel oil.
India's crude imports remained above the -year range, averaging 5.1mln BPD in November. Product exports increased, supported by higher gasoline and naphtha exports, which offset a further strong decline in diesel outflows.