OPEC MOMR: 2026 world oil demand remains at 1.4mln BPD (unchanged from the Dec MOMR), 2027 world oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3mln BPD Y/Y
Newsquawk Staff ·
World Oil Supply
- 2026 non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6mln BPD Y/Y, unchanged from last month’s assessment, with Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina as the main growth drivers.
- 2027 non-DoC liquids production is also forecast to grow by 0.6mln BPD, mainly driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina.
- Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1mln BPD Y/Y in 2026, to average about 8.8mln BPD, followed by a similar increase in 2027 of about 0.1mlnn BPD Y/Y to average about 8.9mln BPD.
- Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC decreased by 238k BPD in December, M/M, to average about 42.83mln BPD, according to available secondary sources.
Balance of Supply and Demand
- 2026 demand for DoC crude remains unchanged from prior month's assessment of 43mln BPD, 0.6mln BPD higher than 2025.
- 2027 demand for DoC crude expected to reach 43.6mln BPD, 0.6mln BPD higher than the 2026 forecast.
Crude and Refined Product Trade
- In December, US crude imports were broadly unchanged from the previous month at just under 6mln BPD. Crude exports rose by almost 10% M/M in December. US product exports broadly unchanged.
- OECD Europe crude imports increased M/M in November. Product imports continued to decline M/M., product exports rose to the upper end of the 5-year range.
- Japan crude imports rose further in November, averaging 2.4mln BPD, supported by regional product demand. Product outflows increased 6%, driven primarily by fuel oil.
- China crude imports rose in November to the highest since 2023, averaging 12.4mln BPD, gain of around 9% M/M. Product imports saw strength, led by naphtha and fuel oil.
- India's crude imports remained above the -year range, averaging 5.1mln BPD in November. Product exports increased, supported by higher gasoline and naphtha exports, which offset a further strong decline in diesel outflows.
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