OPEC MOMR (Mar – Incorporates Iranian War): In March, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC (OPEC+) dropped by 7.70mln BPD M/M, to average about 35.06mln BPD, according to available secondary sources

SUPPLY

• In March, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC (OPEC+) dropped by 7.70mln BPD M/M, to average about 35.06mln BPD, according to available secondary sources.
• OPEC+ March crude production breakdown is available at the bottom.

DEMAND

• The demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2026 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.9mln BPD.
• Global oil demand growth for 2026 is forecast at 1.4mln BPD Y/Y, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment.
• The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1mln BPD, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about  1.3mln  BPD.
• In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3mln BPD Y/Y, also unchanged from last  month’s assessment. 
• The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1mln BPD, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by around 1.2mln BPD.

REFINING MARGINS

• In March, refining margins surged across all major regions, given the sharp reduction in product output and rising middle distillate crack spreads, which reached multi-year highs.
• Trade flow constraints and refinery run cuts in the East of Suez contributed further pressure on product margins amid the heavy refinery maintenance season.

TANKERS

• In March, trade disruptions and moves to source alternative supplies pushed dirty tanker spot freight rates to record levels.
• On the West Africa-to-East route, VLCC spot freight rates rose 34%, M/M. Suezmax spot freight rates on the USGC-to-Europe route jumped 104%, M/M.
• Aframax rates were particularly strong West of Suez, with the Intra-Mediterranean route increasing 68%, while the Indonesia-to-East route experienced more limited gains of 8%, M/M.

PRICES

• In March, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value increased by USD 48.46/bbl, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average USD 116.36/bbl.
• The forward curves of the three main crude oil futures benchmarks – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman – steepened sharply in March, and the calendar spreads between the nearest futures contracts moved into deeper backwardation.
• Traders were pricing in significant short-term supply tightness amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Tight physical crude supply prompted refiners, particularly in the Asia- Pacific and Europe, to compete for available spot cargoes through aggressive bidding.
• Hedge funds and other money managers turned increasingly bullish on oil in March, sharply increasing their net long positions amid supply disruptions and rising oil prices.

ECONOMY

• Following sound global GDP growth in 2025, estimated at 3.3%, the global economy is expected to be able to generally absorb temporary events like trade-related challenges and the current Middle East geopolitical developments.
• While geopolitical developments in the Middle East have been to the fore in recent weeks, US tariff-related developments have been volatile since the beginning of the year. They may become a topic of interest again in the near-term as the US administration may again raise tariffs.