Poll shows 27 out of 31 economists expect the RBNZ to raise the OCR by 25bps to 2.75% at next week's meeting, while more than two thirds of economists at least one more rate hike after September to lift the OCR to 3.00% or above by year-end

Survey consensus this one-sided ahead of an RBNZ decision narrows the question from whether to how: with near-unanimous expectation of a hike, the decision itself carries little information and the repricing risk sits in the statement, the published OCR track, and the Governor's framing of how much further tightening is projected. The pattern in such setups is that a fully priced move delivered with a hawkish projected track still tightens front-end rates and supports the currency, while the same move paired with a neutral or data-dependent track is treated as dovish relative to positioning, a distinction that has repeatedly driven the two-year point and NZD in opposite directions on decision day. The survey's second finding, a majority looking for at least one further hike by year-end, sets the hurdle: confirmation of that path keeps the front end bid, any softening of it unwinds the premium. Worth noting that poll consensus of this kind has historically been a lagging aggregator of prior central bank signalling rather than an independent signal. The follow-ons are the accompanying projections and press conference language on inflation persistence, and how the track compares with what is already discounted in the short end.