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PREVIEW - US Earnings Season kicks-off next week

The upcoming US earnings season is poised to reveal significant insights, with about 70% of S&P 500 market cap expected to report Q1 results by the end of April.

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PREVIEW - US Earnings Season kicks-off next week

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  • EXPECTATIONS: Earnings season will kick-off on Monday, and around 70% of S&P 500 market cap will have reported Q1 results by the end of April. The S&P 500 is expected to see earnings growth of 13.2% Y/Y in Q1 2026, which would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit EPS growth, according to FactSet. Revenue growth is forecast to rise 9.7% Y/Y, which would be the highest since Q3 2022. All eleven GICS sectors are projected to report revenue growth, led by IT, Communication Services, and Financials. Ahead, analysts see earnings growth of 19.1% Y/Y in Q2, 21.2% Y/Y in Q3, and 19.3% Y/Y in Q4, with total FY26 EPS growth see at 17.4% Y/Y. FactSet notes that, of the 110 S&P 500 companies that have issued EPS guidance for Q1, 59 issued positive updates vs 51 negative — the highest proportion of positive guidance since Q3 2021 at 54%, and well above the five-year average of 42%. The Tech sector is likely to be the primary driver, with 33 companies issuing positive EPS guidance, near a record high since FactSet began tracking the metric in 2006. Regarding revenues, 77 S&P 500 companies issued positive guidance for Q1, which FactSet said was an all-time record, surpassing the previous high of 71 set in Q1 2021.
  • OUTLOOK IS KEY: Analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast 12% Y/Y S&P 500 EPS growth for FY26, noting that AI investment represents a structural tailwind, accounting for an estimated 40% of index EPS growth this year; the bank expects Tech sector EPS to rise by 44% Y/Y in Q1, representing 87% of total index EPS growth for the quarter. However, Goldman cautions that the headline numbers will matter less than what management says about the outlook, and warns that the macro volatility of the current backdrop means reported results will carry a smaller than usual impact on share prices, shifting the focus squarely onto forward guidance, particularly around AI CapEx, which GS estimates will account for 40% of S&P 500 EPS growth in 2026. BlackRock’s Equities CIO Helen Jewell adds a note of caution: with consensus still pricing in double-digit growth well into H2 2026, she argues there is considerable room for estimates to be revised lower, making Q2 and beyond guidance the critical variable this season. Jewell told Bloomberg that stable consumer sector earnings are difficult to reconcile with elevated interest rates and inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict, and she expects overall profits to remain broadly flat, with any upside in energy and materials offset by weakness in sectors such as airlines.
  • NEXT WEEK: Notable companies reporting next week include: on Monday, 13/Apr, Goldman Sachs (GS), Fastenal (FAST); on Tuesday, 14/Apr, JPMorgan (JPM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), BlackRock (BLK); on Wednesday, 15/Apr, Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), Progressive (PGR), PNC (PNC), M&T Bank (MTB), J.B. Hunt (JBHT), First Horizon Corporation (FHN); on Thursday, 16/Apr, Netflix (NFLX), PepsiCo (PEP), Abbott (ABT), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Prologis (PLD), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), US Bancorp (USB), Marsh & McLennan (MRSH), Travelers (TRV), Citizens Financial (CFG), KeyCorp (KEY), Alcoa (AA); and on Friday, 17/Apr, Truist (TFC), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), State Street (STT), Regions Financial (RF), Autoliv (ALV).
Context

Analysts forecast a robust earnings growth of approximately 13.2% year-on-year, highlighting the importance of management outlooks in the current volatile macroeconomic environment, especially regarding AI investments that are expected to drive significant future growth.

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