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PREVIEW: CBRT Policy announcement due at 12:00BST/07:00EDT

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PREVIEW: CBRT Policy announcement due at 12:00BST/07:00EDT

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  • Consensus is for the CBRT hold its key rate at 37.0%, though several banks hold a view that the MPC will opt to tighten by 300bps to 40.0% as the MPC's reluctance to hike is weighed against continued Middle East-related energy pressures. 
  • At its last meeting, the CBRT left rates unchanged at 37%, in line with market expectations. Since then, PPI inflation data came in mixed, though cooling on a monthly basis. Political instability has also accelerated lira depreciation despite energy benchmarks easing from recent highs. Against this backdrop, banks are split on their rate calls. 
  • BofA expects the bank to keep rates on hold, citing recent de-escalation attempts in the Gulf region and the MPC's efforts to preserve stability. However, BofA does not rule out tightening, saying a 300bps increase in the benchmark rate would be a possible alternative, "providing the CBRT with additional buffer in the event of a material deterioration in sentiment or reserve losses tied to domestic or geopolitical developments."
  • JPMorgan expects the CBRT to hike the repo rate by 300bps to 40% in a bid to shore up the TRY amid recent geopolitical and domestic political developments. 
  • UBS highlights that the CBRT has threatened its ability to employ rate hikes and use FX reserves to stabilise the currency. ING said there is a possibility of a rate hike if they believed pressure on FX reserves intensified.

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