[PREVIEW] Riksbank policy announcement on 29th January 2026 at 08:30GMT

• The Riksbank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% and continue to signal that the rate is likely to remain at this level for some time.
• Recent data point to a faster-than-expected disinflation process. The labour market remains subdued whilst growth rebounds.
• SEB expects rates to remain unchanged throughout 2026, but sees a chance of a cut in the spring or summer if inflation continues to surprise to the downside.

Overview: The Riksbank is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. In previous meetings, the Riksbank has signalled that the rate is likely to remain at that level for some time. Disinflation has continued, however, at a faster pace than both markets and the Riksbank anticipated. At the same time, Q4 growth indicators point to a recovering Swedish economy. The labour market continues to improve, which the Riksbank has described as “weak but clear signs of improvement”. Looking further ahead, SEB expects the Bank to stay on hold through 2026, but sees downside risks to that forecast if inflation continues to cool. This is not a Monetary Policy Report meeting, so projections will not be updated; Governor Thedeen will hold a post-policy press conference at 10:00 GMT.

Data: Recent data point to a recovering economy, while the disinflation process continues at a faster pace. CPIF, the Riksbank’s preferred inflation gauge, came in at 2.1% in December versus expectations of 2.5%, moving closer to the bank’s inflation target. GDP indicators also suggest a stronger-than-expected recovery, with November M/M growth at 0.9% versus forecasts of 0.2% and a previous reading of -0.3%.

Analyst Commentary: Markets widely expect the Riksbank to keep rates unchanged at this meeting and throughout 2026. Danske Bank, however, expects a 25bp rate hike in December, citing a brighter economic outlook and upside risks to inflation. SEB and Nordea also see rates staying on hold through 2026, but do not rule out further cuts. Nordea says a cut in May or June is possible, while SEB points to a potential move in the spring or summer.

Last Meeting: At its December meeting, the Riksbank left the policy rate unchanged at 1.75%, as expected, and reiterated that the policy rate is likely to remain at that level for some time. In the December minutes, Governor Jansson struck a more dovish tone, saying downside risks to inflation have increased significantly and that a further rate cut is more likely than a hike. SEB believes Governor Jansson could be open to a cut in March if downside inflation surprises persist.