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PREVIEW: US December CPI is due at 13:30GMT/08:30EST

The upcoming US December CPI report is pivotal as it reflects ongoing inflation trends.

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PREVIEW: US December CPI is due at 13:30GMT/08:30EST

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  • CONSENSUS: The consensus looks for headline CPI to rise by 0.3% M/M in December (prev. 0.3%), and the annual rate to remain unchanged at 2.7% Y/Y. The core rate is expected to rise 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%), with the annual rate of core CPI seen rising to 2.7% Y/Y (from 2.6%).
  • STREET VIEWS: Wells Fargo expects US CPI to rebound on a monthly basis in December after Novemberʼs unusually soft reading, with headline CPI seen rising 0.35% M/M and core CPI 0.36% M/M. It expects the annual rates to hold at 2.7% Y/Y for headline inflation and 2.8% Y/Y for core, remaining below September levels and signalling a continued disinflationary trend. Goldman Sachs expects December US CPI to exceed consensus, with core CPI forecast at 0.35% M/M (2.78% Y/Y) and headline CPI at 0.37% M/M, reflecting firmer food and energy prices. GS says the upside is largely technical, driven by distortions from earlier government shutdown–related data issues, which are expected to temporarily boost inflation through the unwinding of delayed and missed price collection.
  • DRIVERS: Goods prices are expected to rebound more sharply than services on holiday discount payback, while tariff pass-through appears to be moderating. Services inflation should also firm, notably in travel-related categories, while shelter inflation is seen following its pre-shutdown trend. Statistical quirks persist, particularly in housing, where CPI sampling rotations mean shutdown-related softness in shelter inflation may linger until April. Health and motor vehicle insurance prices are also expected to restrain CPI in the coming months.
  • INFLATION GAUGES: Among other inflation gauges, the New York Fedʼs monthly survey of consumer expectations rose in December, with consumers expecting 3.4% price growth over the next year, up from 3.2% in November, while longer-term expectations were steady. In December, ISM data, manufacturing prices remained in expansion, matching November, while the services prices index fell to its lowest since March 2025, though it has still exceeded 60 for 13 straight months.
  • INFLATION: OUTLOOK: Goldman views the inflation strength as transitory, and expects some further firmness from start-of-year price resets before disinflation resumes later in 2026 as housing, labour market and tariff effects fade, consistent with inflation returning close to target. Meanwhile, Wells sees inflation continuing to ease, supporting a patient Fed stance. 
Context

A consensus expectation of a 0.3% monthly increase with stable annual rates suggests a continued disinflationary environment, though contrasting views from Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs indicate potential upside risks due to seasonal adjustments and technical factors. This report is critical for shaping the Federal Reserve's policy stance, especially in light of recent hints towards a more patient approach amid easing inflation pressures.

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