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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes Miran (outgoing), Schmid, Hammack, Bowman, Williams, Barr

Today's comments from several Federal Reserve officials highlight a divergent outlook on monetary policy and inflation.

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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes Miran (outgoing), Schmid, Hammack, Bowman, Williams, Barr

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  • 13:00BST/08:00EDT: Fed’s Miran (outgoing, dove) will give an interview to Bloomberg TV. Speaking last week, Miran said it is appropriate to cut rates and still favours front-loading cuts. He said Fed policy is holding back the labour market, while neither jobs nor inflation expectations point to higher inflation. Miran said policymakers should look through energy shocks, provide less forward guidance, reduce the balance sheet and treat Powell staying on as transitional. NOTE: Now that Kevin Warsh has been confirmed to the Board and as Fed Chair, Miran will vacate his seat, and will not participate at the June FOMC.
  • 15:15BST/10:15EDT: Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter, hawk; text & Q&A expected) will appear at Kansas City Fed conference. Speaking before the April FOMC, Schmid warned the Fed should not look through the inflation impact of higher energy prices from the Iran conflict. He said the oil shock comes with inflation already too high for too long, and now is not the time to assume higher oil-price inflation will be transitory.
  • 18:00BST/13:00EDT: Fed’s Hammack (2026 voter, hawk) will give opening remarks at Cleveland Fed event. Speaking last week, Hammack said businesses are concerned an inflationary mindset is becoming entrenched, and that policymakers must keep an open mind on the next move given uncertainty. She said rates should stay on hold for quite some time, price pressures are worrying, higher gasoline prices are weighing on consumers, and inflation expectations remain “pretty-well” anchored. NOTE: Hammack was one of the three voting members who dissented to the Fed retaining its easing bias within the April policy statement.
  • 18:00BST/13:00EDT: Fed’s Bowman (voter, dove; text expected) will give opening remarks at a Kansas City Fed event. The Fed’s Vice Chair of Supervision has not recently commented directly on monetary policy. She has recently noted that the post-2008 capital rules pushed corporate lending from regulated banks into the USD 1.4tln private credit market, with bank share of corporate lending falling to 29% in 2025 from 48% in 2015, adding that the Fed is recalibrating Basel III rules to lower risk weights for investment-grade corporate loans. She also said regulators must consider how to supervise new AI tech, and that regulators are preparing a report on sound practices for AI adoption and use.
  • 22:45BST/17:45EDT: Fed’s Williams (voter, neutral; no text expected; Q&A) will participate in moderated discussion. Speaking last week, Williams said eventual rate cuts remain likely over the longer term, and saw no need to consider hikes, with policy well placed amid uncertainty. He has recently revised down his 2026 growth view, upped his inflation view slightly, seeing around 3% this year (prev. saw 2.75-3.00%), before returning to target in 2027 (the Fed projections see a return by 2028), and unemployment between 4.25-4.50%. Williams said tariffs, energy and supply-chain disruptions are key inflation drivers, though expectations remain contained. Williams noted that there is a lot of uncertainty in the economy, while activity remains resilient and the labour market stable. He said interest rates are not historically high and that government debt must be addressed at some point.
  • 00:00BST/19:00EDT: Fed’s Barr (voter) will give remarks on the Fed’s balance sheet. Speaking last week, Barr said stress in private credit could trigger “psychological contagion” and a broader credit pullback. He said direct bank links to private credit do not yet look “super worrisome”, but flagged concerns around insurance-sector overlaps with private lenders and possible spillovers into corporate bond markets.
Context

While some, like Miran and Bowman, emphasize the need for caution and potential easing, hawks like Schmid and Hammack focus on the persistent inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices. This variance in views may impact market expectations for future rate movements and could generate volatility across assets, particularly in fixed income and FX markets.

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