PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes voters Waller and Paulson

13:00BST/08:00EDT: Fed’s Waller (voter) participates in a panel discussion with ECB Chief Economist Lane, at the ECB International Research Forum on Monetary Policy. Speaking in April before the FOMC meeting, Waller said policymakers must monitor inflation expectations as war risks raise the chance of higher inflation and labour market weakness. He said an unresolved conflict could warrant holding rates steady, while a swift resolution may allow the Fed to look through an energy shock. Waller also noted some low hiring and firing reflected tariff-related caution, said the USD’s reserve status was not under threat, and saw no systemic risk from private credit. Waller has also suggested that the Fed overhauls its regional Fed bank operations by centralising some functions, and favours a broader consolidation model.
00:00BST/19:00EDT: Fed’s Paulson (2026 voter) will give a keynote address at an Atlanta Fed conference. Speaking before the April FOMC meeting, Paulson warned that Iran war commodity shocks risk feeding into inflation expectations more quickly and durably given five years of above-target inflation, adding that both inflation and growth risks have risen. And more recently, she has argued that policy credibility was vital to lowering inflation and supporting growth, adding the rate path would depend on progress towards the 2% inflation target. She said productivity-led or AI-driven growth may not require a policy response, but warned that holding policy steady without such gains could raise inflation pressures. Her neutral rate estimate was near 3.1%.