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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes: Warsh, Williams, Cook, Musalem

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PRIMER - Today’s Fedspeak includes: Warsh, Williams, Cook, Musalem

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  • 13:45BST/08:45EDT - Fed’s Williams (voter) will give keynote remarks. Speaking last week, Williams said that inflation is “far too high”, with risks tilted to the upside, describing AI investment as a current driver of inflation while expecting it to become a positive supply shock in the longer run. He said monthly PCE of 0.2% in H2 would be consistent with the Fed’s goal, tariff impacts on inflation are near their peak, and the balance sheet debate should focus on interest rate control rather than nominal size.
  • 15:00BST/10:00EDT - Fed Chair Warsh (voter) will give testimony to the Senate. At his House testimony on Tuesday, Warsh said the FOMC has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation,” describing soft June CPI as “one data point” he did not want to overread, adding that while the decline was better than expected, “mission accomplished” had not yet been reached. He said the FOMC’s job is to ensure short-term price changes do not broaden out, and flagged that both the size and duration of the Fed’s balance sheet are worthy of review. He hinted that interest rates are among the tools available to curb inflation, saying the Fed would have a “good family fight” about the extent and timing of deploying them. He is expected to echo these remarks to the Senate.
  • 18:00BST/13:00EDT - Fed’s Cook (voter) will give remarks on the economic outlook. Speaking towards the end of May, Cook said the right course of action is to hold rates steady, with risks tilted toward higher inflation that is “clearly moving in the wrong direction.” She said she would be prepared to raise rates if expected disinflation fails to appear in a timely manner, but would cut if the labour market deteriorates. Cook noted even temporary shocks could push up inflation in the medium term, while AI-related job losses could precede job gains; she described the labour market as “largely stable” but with elevated downside risks. Cook said she is closely watching inflation expectations and oil prices, warning it would be problematic if oil moved in the wrong direction.
  • 18:30EDT - Fed’s Musalem (2028 voter) is due to gives opening remarks. Speaking towards the end of May, Musalem said the policy rate appears at or below the long-run neutral rate, with longer-term inflation expectations drifting higher and risks tilted to the inflation side. He said the baseline outlook is for inflation to take longer to return to target and that a rate increase may be required if disinflation does not materialise in the next couple of quarters. He cautioned against relying on AI-driven productivity gains to resolve current inflation pressures, describing the data as inconclusive.

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