RBNZ keeps the OCR at 2.25%, as expected, while it stated that the committee will continue to assess incoming data carefully

• Economy is at an early stage in its recovery.
• If the economy evolves as expected, monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time.
• Although residential business investment is increasing, households remain cautious in their spending.
• Labour market stabilising, but unemployment remains elevated.
• Committee is confident that inflation will fall to the 2% midpoint over the next 12 months due to spare capacity in the economy, modest wage growth, and core inflation within the target band.
• Inflation is most likely returning to within the committee's 1–3% target band in the current quarter.
• Conditional on the central economic outlook, the OCR is projected to remain around its current level in the near term before increasing from late 2026.
• Risks to the outlook are balanced.
• Sees OCR at 2.26% by June 2026 (prev. 2.20%).
• Sees OCR at 2.38% by December 2026 (prev. 2.28%).
• Sees OCR at 2.62% by June 2027 (prev. 2.45%).
• Sees OCR at 2.79% by December 2027 (prev. 2.65%).
• Sees OCR at 3.0% in March 2029.
• Sees NZD trade weighted index to reach approximately 68% by March 2027.

• Members agreed monetary policy stance would need to remain accommodative for some time.
• There is a risk that prolonged caution on the part of households could slow the recovery in consumption activity, particularly in the context of a recent tightening in financial conditions.
• Members noted global risks that could slow domestic economic recovery.
• Committee noted that headline inflation is most likely returning to the target band in the March 2026 quarter.
• There are upside and downside risks to the near-term outlook for inflation.
• Members noted risks regarding the speed of the economic recovery.

The RBNZ's decision to maintain the OCR at 2.25% aligns with expectations, indicating a cautious approach as the economy recovers. The committee's emphasis on accommodative policy suggests that rates will remain low for an extended period to support growth, reflecting their confidence that inflation will stabilize within the target band in the coming quarters. Traders should monitor the impacts on the NZD and potential spillover effects across currencies, especially amid elevated global uncertainty.