RBNZ keeps the OCR at 2.25%, as expected, while it stated that the committee will continue to assess incoming data carefully

Says:

• Economy is at an early stage in its recovery.
• If the economy evolves as expected, monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative for some time.
• Although residential business investment is increasing, households remain cautious in their spending.
• Labour market stabilising, but unemployment remains elevated.
• Committee is confident that inflation will fall to the 2% midpoint over the next 12 months due to spare capacity in the economy, modest wage growth, and core inflation within the target band.
• Inflation is most likely returning to within the committee's 1–3% target band in the current quarter.
• Conditional on the central economic outlook, the OCR is projected to remain around its current level in the near term before increasing from late 2026.
• Risks to the outlook are balanced.
• Sees OCR at 2.26% by June 2026 (prev. 2.20%).
• Sees OCR at 2.38% by December 2026 (prev. 2.28%).
• Sees OCR at 2.62% by June 2027 (prev. 2.45%).
• Sees OCR at 2.79% by December 2027 (prev. 2.65%).
• Sees OCR at 3.0% in March 2029.
• Sees NZD trade weighted index to reach approximately 68% by March 2027.

RBNZ Minutes

• Members agreed monetary policy stance would need to remain accommodative for some time.
• There is a risk that prolonged caution on the part of households could slow the recovery in consumption activity, particularly in the context of a recent tightening in financial conditions.
• Members noted global risks that could slow domestic economic recovery.
• Committee noted that headline inflation is most likely returning to the target band in the March 2026 quarter.
• There are upside and downside risks to the near-term outlook for inflation.
• Members noted risks regarding the speed of the economic recovery.