Riksbank leaves its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% as expected; rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come

Statement:

• War in the Middle East makes forecasts very uncertain.
• Monitoring developments closely and will adjust policy if outlook for inflation and economic activity so requires.

Scenarios:

• If the war has significantly greater effects on the global economy and leads to a broader and more persistent upturn in inflation, rates would have to be raised, even though economic activity would be significantly lower.
• If the war has negative effects on demand and it becomes more significant at the same time as inflationary pressures become weaker, rates would have to be cut to stimulate demand.

MPR: 

• Q2’26 1.75% vs prev. 1.75%
• Q3’26 1.75% vs prev. 1.75%
• Q4’26 1.77% vs prev. 1.77%
• Q1'27 1.81% vs prev. 1.81%
• Q1'28 1.99% vs prev. 1.99%
• Q1'29 2.17%

Forecasts: