Riksbank Minutes (Mar): Thedeen said "Our starting point with low inflation gives us some respite until we have a clearer picture of the economic consequences of the war..."

Jansson

• "I feel that uncertainty is currently so elevated that I actually find it difficult to identify a clear main scenario among all the possible development paths ahead"
• "Since our January meeting, we have received two new inflation outcomes, for January and February, and these have only reinforced the picture of Swedish inflationary pressures becoming lower. "
• "Much of my concern about problematically low inflationary pressures has so far been linked to the recent strong appreciation of the krona."
• "For now, everyone agrees that a wait-and-see approach is the best strategy."
• "...have a relatively favourable starting position in that inflationary pressures have now fallen to a low level and the economic recovery already gained traction last year. The fact that we have also lowered the policy rate to what we believe is a mildly expansionary level is also an advantage. This allows us to adjust monetary policy promptly, if necessary, to make it either more expansionary or contractionary."

Seim

• "I support the interest-rate path described in the draft report but am considerably more concerned that inflation will be too high than that it will be too low"
• "...given considerable thought to whether we ought to add some probability of a rate increase in the near term to the interest-rate path"
• "Today's slightly expansionary but close-to-neutral interest rate constitutes a good starting point to, once more reliable signals are available, adjust monetary policy if deemed warranted."

Hjelm

• "When the measure of inflation that I believe should guide monetary policy in the shorter term is, as it is now, close to 2 per cent within just two to three quarters, I believe the threshold for a different monetary policy should be relatively high."
• "I believe that both core inflation and measures of resource utilisation will return sufficiently close to normal levels within a reasonable time-frame with the interest-rate path on which the baseline scenario is based"

Bunge

• "In my opinion, a robust and reasonable monetary policy in these circumstances is to wait for more information"
• "If the supply shocks can be constrained in time, they will not necessarily require a tighter monetary policy. On the contrary, they may result in inflation closer to the target during the year, precisely because inflation otherwise would have been low."

Thedeen

• Regarding the Middle East conflict, "Neither fiscal policy nor monetary policy is capable of making these negative effects on the economy disappear."
• "I see three factors as being central to the shaping of monetary policy in the current situation: the size and cause of the supply shock, its longevity and our assessment of the initial economic situation."
• "My assessment is that what is happening in the Middle East now is not a temporary supply shock...Given how long the crisis has been under way and the already fairly substantial effects on the energy infrastructure, I fear that lasting repercussions may arise regarding the oil and natural gas supply in the world"
• "One insight from recent years is that it is risky for a central bank to assume that it is possible to see through supply shocks."
• Regarding potential stagflationary impacts, "This would mean that monetary policy faces a difficult trade-off."
• "Our starting point with low inflation gives us some respite until we have a clearer picture of the economic consequences of the war. At present, it is too early to determine how the outlook for inflation and economic activity in Sweden will be affected"