Riksbank Minutes: President Thedeen says "at present I assess that monetary policy is following a stable and reasonable course, and we can tolerate minor deviations in data outcomes without immediately needing to adjust the course we have set. "
Newsquawk Staff ·
Governor Erik Thedeen
- "In recent weeks, the krona has strengthened even further, suggesting that, going forward, goods inflation may be dampened more than we earlier assumed. "
- "a stronger krona indicates that our inflation forecast from December will more likely need to be revised down rather than up."
- "I still expect the policy rate to remain at its current level for some time to come "
- "At present, growth in the Swedish economy is instead somewhat stronger than we expected."
Deputy Governor Per Jansson
- "We have seen new and significantly aggravated geopolitical conflicts, with the US administration also threatening several countries with sharply higher tariffs on their exports to the United States. At times, the severity of these geopolitical conflicts has even raised questions about whether NATO can continue to exist in its current form"
- "It is a fact that inflation is falling – and doing so somewhat faster than expected. For my part, however, I have also, since our meeting in 7 November, highlighted the growing risk of inflationary pressures becoming too weak going forward."
- "A further reason why I believe it is too early to cut the interest rate now is linked to the future development of the krona. As noted in the draft update, it is possible that the appreciation of the krona has now peaked, and that the impact on inflation going forward will therefore gradually diminish."
Deputy Governor Anna Seim
- "I assess that the increased uncertainty reduces the risk of demand driven inflation in Sweden somewhat, at the same time as the strong krona leads to lower costs and dampens inflationary pressures. My concern regarding inflation risks on the upside has therefore subsided somewhat, but one should be aware that conditions can change rapidly."
First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge
- "I see the Swedish economy performing well. But we cannot disregard the increased global uncertainty, which could overturn this view."
What it means
The Riksbank's minutes highlight a cautious but stable outlook for Sweden's monetary policy, with Governor Thedeen indicating that upward revisions to their inflation forecasts are likely obsolete due to a strengthened krona. While the board acknowledges the current geopolitical uncertainties, they maintain that the economic growth is strong and the policy rate will remain stable for now, reflecting a balanced approach to both inflation and economic growth amidst turbulent conditions.
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