Shell (SHEL LN) sees 4Q marketing adjusted earnings below 4Q 2024, sees 4Q chemicals & products segment adjusted earnings below break-even; sees 4Q indicative refining margin at USD 14/bbl (vs USD 12/bbl in Q3 2025)

Shell's projections indicate a significant downturn in 4Q performance, with adjusted earnings across the marketing and chemicals & products segments expected to fall below breakeven.

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Shell (SHEL LN) sees 4Q marketing adjusted earnings below 4Q 2024, sees 4Q chemicals & products segment adjusted earnings below break-even; sees 4Q indicative refining margin at USD 14/bbl (vs USD 12/bbl in Q3 2025)

UK Halifax House Price Index YoY (Dec) Y/Y 0.3% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 0.7%)

Norwegian Manufacturing Production MoM (Nov) M/M 2.4% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.9%)

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  • sees 4Q upstream output 1.84- 1.94mln BOE/D (vs 1.832mln in Q3 2025)
Context

The guidance for a slight increase in upstream output suggests operational resilience, but the overall earnings outlook raises concerns about margins and demand, which could impact broader investor sentiment in the energy sector.

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