TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (U6) SETTLE 7+ TICKS HIGHER AT 108-10+

T-notes gained across the curve, unwinding some of the week's weakness as oil prices retreated ahead of the weekend. At settlement, 2-year -1.8bps at 4.333%, 3-year -2.5bps at 4.367%, 5-year -2.7bps at 4.429%, 7-year -2.3bps at 4.550%, 10-year -1.8bps at 4.681%, 20-year -1.1bps at 5.190%, 30-year -0.1bps at 5.164%.

THE DAY: Treasury yields fell across the curve on Friday as oil prices retreated from recent peaks, with Brent falling back below USD 100/bbl. The pullback appeared to reflect some position squaring ahead of the weekend rather than any meaningful improvement in the geopolitical backdrop.

Reports around Thursday's close suggested the Iraqi President was travelling to Tehran with a US proposal, although Iran ultimately rejected it. The US also completed its 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, while the WSJ reported that President Trump is losing patience amid the lack of a clear path towards ending the conflict. Trump also held a Cabinet meeting on Friday to discuss whether to intensify the military campaign against Iran. On the more constructive side, reports suggested China is pushing Pakistan to explore a path towards renewed US-Iran talks. Overall, significant headline risk remains over the weekend, with attention on whether diplomatic efforts gain traction or the US moves towards further escalation.

Elsewhere, US economic data were encouraging. The S&P Global Flash Composite PMI rose to 53.6 from 51.9 (exp. 52.3), driven by the Services PMI rising to 53.6 from 51.2 (exp. 51.0). However, Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.8 from 53.9, below expectations for a rise to 54.5. S&P Global said the survey data are consistent with GDP growing at an annualised pace of around 2.0%, compared with the 1.2% pace signalled for Q2. The report also highlighted an intensification of supply-chain delays and renewed price pressures, although the data had little lasting impact on Treasuries. 

Focus remains firmly on geopolitics, although attention will shift towards next week's FOMC decision. A hold remains the base case, but markets continue to price some risk of a rate hike following the recent surge in energy prices and associated increase in inflation concerns.

• US to sell USD 69bln 2-year notes and USD 70bln 5-year notes on July 27; to sell USD 44bln 7-year notes on July 28; to sell USD 30bln 2yr FRN on July 29th; all to settle on July 31st..

• US to sell USD 92bln 13-week bills and USD 79bln 26-week bills on July 27; to sell USD 95bln 6-week bills on July 28; all to settle on July 30
• US sold 4-wk bills at high-rate 3.730%, B/C 2.79x; sold 8-wk bills at high-rate 3.795%, B/C 2.31x

• Fed Pricing: 36.5bps (prev. Dec 38bps)
• EFFR at 3.63% (prev. 3.63%), volumes at USD 104bln (prev. USD 102bln) on July 23rd
• SOFR at 3.64% (prev. 3.62%), volumes at USD 2.971tln (prev. USD 3.026tln) on July 23rd
• NY Fed RRP op demand at 0.68bln (prev. 0.90bln) across 2 counterparties (prev. 6) on July 24th