US CENTCOM has prepared a large-scale operation in the form of a decisive two-week bombing campaign should Trump choose escalation to break the deadlock in the Middle East, The Hill reports, citing sources

Contingency-planning stories of this kind sit one rung below an actual order, and the established sequence is that markets trade them as probability shifts on escalation rather than as events: crude picks up a risk premium first through the prompt spreads and freight and insurance costs on Gulf transit, with gold, the yen and the Swiss franc the usual secondary expressions. The distinction that has mattered in comparable episodes is between planning leaks designed to pressure an adversary in stalled negotiations, which tend to fade, and genuine pre-strike positioning, which is usually corroborated by force movements, carrier deployments and diplomatic drawdowns before any ordinance. Sourcing from a single media outlet citing unnamed officials is a familiar feature of these cycles and has historically cut both ways, some such reports preceding action and others dissolving within days. The relevant precedent set is past US strike campaigns in the region: the oil reaction has tended to be sharpest at the front of the curve and to retrace unless physical supply through the Strait of Hormuz or regional production infrastructure is actually hit. Worth watching is whether the report draws official confirmation or denial, any visible military logistics, and whether regional actors adjust posture. Until corroboration, the story functions as a negotiating-signal input more than a supply input.