US EQUITY OPEN: Indices in the red as TSLA & GOOGL earnings weigh with continued heightened geopols
OPEN: US indices opened in the red, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (-1.5%) lagging and weighed on by losses in TSLA (-11%) and GOOGL (-6.5%) post-earnings. As such, Communications and Consumer Discretionary reside as the laggards, with sectors overall mixed; Industrials and Energy sit atop of the pile, with the latter supported by gains of c. USD 4-5/bbl in the crude complex given the ever-escalating US/Iran tensions. The Dollar is broadly stronger vs. G10 FX peers, as the Kiwi lags, with the Loonie the sole G10 gainer and supported by the soaring energy prices. EUR is little changed on the latest ECB confab, which was largely as anticipated, but more weighed on by aforementioned broader energy moves. On the data footing, initial jobless claims tumbled to 187k from 209k, and much beneath the forecasted 212k. Treasuries are lower across the curve, with the 2yr and 10yr yield hitting YTD highs. Not much is scheduled in the day ahead, aside from 10yr TIPS auction and earnings from INTC after-hours.
STOCK SPECIFICS:
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Sharply higher AI capex forecast overshadowed strong cloud rev.
- Tesla (TSLA): Profit missed as discounting, weaker regulatory credit income, margin pressure, heavy AI & robotics spending outweighed record vehicle deliveries
- IBM (IBM): Weak results, but came after dismal Q2 prelim figures
- Texas Instruments (TXN): Upbeat forecast failed to meet lofty exp. after a recent strong rally, despite broad growth across industrial, data centre & autos.
- ServiceNow (NOW): EPS, rev. & subscription rev. all topped.
- CSX (CSX): Top & bottom line surpassed exp.
- Southwest Airlines (LUV): Profit light w/ disappointing FY EPS guide.
- RTX (RTX): Stellar Q. metrics & outlook
- Thermo Fisher (TMO): Rev., adj. EBIT & adj. EPS beat
- Honeywell (HON): Rev. surpassed Wall St. consensus
Sessions driven by heavyweight megacap misses have historically followed a recognisable pattern: index-level weakness concentrated in the growth complex while the equal-weight tape and value sectors hold up better, with breadth the key tell of whether the move stays rotational or broadens into a risk-off day. The GOOGL reaction is of the capex-penalty kind, where strong underlying revenue is overridden by spending guidance; in past episodes of this sort the selling has tended to be sharpest in the name itself and its AI-capex supply chain, while peers with similar spending plans trade on sympathy rather than fundamentals. TSLA's decline on margin compression despite record deliveries fits the established pattern for the name: the market has consistently punished profitability erosion more than it has rewarded volume, and post-earnings gaps of this size have historically shown follow-through into the next session. The cross-asset backdrop matters for interpretation: crude strength on US/Iran escalation is steepening the inflation impulse at the same time as a firm claims print pushes front-end and belly yields to year highs, a combination that has historically pressured long-duration equities independently of earnings and complicates any dip-buying case in tech. The EUR/CAD split on the energy move is the standard petro-currency transmission. Worth watching: whether the Nasdaq weakness broadens beyond the two reporting names into the wider AI complex, the 10yr TIPS auction as a read on real-yield sensitivity, and INTC after hours as the next test of semiconductor sentiment following TXN's guidance disappointment.