US reportedly set to halve tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium in trade deal

Reported adjustments of this kind, trimming rather than lifting existing metals tariffs in exchange for a broader bilateral arrangement, follow a well-worn sequence: an initial headline on in-principle agreement, a lag before the legal instrument is signed, and only then changes to the actual tariff schedule and any quota or exclusion carve-outs. Precedent in North American metals trade shows such deals have often converted flat duties into quota-based regimes, where volumes within a threshold clear at lower or zero rates and overshoot pays the full tariff, so the operative detail is whether this is a straight rate cut or a tariff-rate quota in disguise. The transmission runs through regional physical premia and the spread between US and offshore benchmark prices for steel and aluminium, which historically have compressed as tariff relief reaches the customs level, rather than through the headline futures contract alone. Canada being among the largest suppliers of both metals into the US market means the flow adjustment is material on the physical side, while prior episodes of tariff easing on close allies have tended to be repriced quickly and then fade as a USD driver. Worth noting is the sourcing: 'reportedly' leaves room for denial, delay, or conditionality, and past tariff negotiations of this kind have produced headline reversals before signature. The follow-ons are the formal text, the effective date, and any Canadian concessions or retaliatory-measure withdrawals attached to the package.