US sells USD 58bln of 3-year notes; Stop through 0.5bps
- Tail: -0.5bps (prev. -0.6bps, six-auction average 0.0bps)
- High Yield: 4.291% (prev. 4.179%, six-auction average 3.888%): WI 4.296%
- B/C: 2.71x (prev. 2.60x, six-auction average 2.61x)
- Dealer: 11.8% (prev. 7.7%, six-auction average 13.9%)
- Direct: 24.0% (prev. 24.8%, six-auction average 21.7%)
- Indirect: 64.2% (prev. 67.5%, six-auction average 64.3%)
A stopped-through 3-year with a cover ratio above both the prior sale and the six-auction average reads as clean demand at the front of the belly, the tenor most sensitive to the expected policy path. The takedown mix is the familiar one: indirects near their recent average signal steady foreign and real-money sponsorship, directs running firm, and dealers left with a below-average award, which is the configuration associated with auctions that clear without concession being left on the table. The high yield stepping up from the prior month reflects the prevailing rate backdrop rather than auction quality, which is measured by the stop-through against the when-issued level. Front-end supply of this size has historically been absorbed smoothly when the rate path is well telegraphed; tails rather than stop-throughs have tended to appear when the market is actively repricing the next meeting. The follow-ons are the longer tenors later in the refunding sequence, where duration demand is the sterner test, and whether dealer awards stay compressed across the week.