EU Market Open: Stocks primed for a firmer open after similar APAC gains;

US President Trump’s administration has repeatedly told mediators it has no interest in going back to the terms of the MoU it reached with Iran in June, WSJ sources said.
Any agreements concluded between Iran and Oman are of no importance to the US, and there are no ongoing or scheduled negotiations with Iran, according to a US source cited by Al Jazeera.
Chinese executives may join Chinese President Xi's US trip, as a trade truce extension is almost certain, according to SCMP.
APAC stocks were mostly positive but with gains capped following the varied performance stateside; European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open.
Looking ahead, highlights include French/Spanish Prelim CPI (Aug), German Unemployment Rate (Aug), Canadian GDP (Jul), US Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prelim, Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (27th-29th). Speakers include Fed Chair Warsh and ECB’s Schnabel. Supply from Italy. Credit Ratings including Fitch on France, Moody's on Switzerland, S&P on Portugal, and Morningstar DBRS on the Netherlands.

LOOKING AHEAD

Highlights include French/Spanish Prelim CPI (Aug), German Unemployment Rate (Aug), Canadian GDP (Jul), US Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision Prelim, Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (27th-29th). Speakers include Fed Chair Warsh and ECB’s Schnabel. Supply from Italy. Credit Ratings including Fitch on France, Moody's on Switzerland, S&P on Portugal and Morningstar DBRS on the Netherlands.
Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

IRAN CONFLICT

US President Trump posted that "Iran Is a Failing Nation!", while he separately commented "I don’t want to meet, they do. In fact, they are begging to make a deal".
US President Trump said they took 24 boats through Hormuz on Wednesday night, while he added Iran is in big trouble and is not paying its troops. Trump also said regarding pressuring Russian President Putin for Iran business, "who says I'm not?", as well as stated that millions of barrels of oil are coming through Hormuz daily.
US President Trump’s administration has repeatedly told mediators it has no interest in going back to the terms of the MoU it reached with Iran in June, while Trump is willing to wait and see if squeezing Iran economically bears fruit, according to WSJ sources.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent will directly ask ministers at the G20 to sever economic leakage that sustains the Iranian regime and the IRGC, according to FBN. He will discuss Iran-related activity Treasury has identified in specific nations and make clear that the US will be uncompromising in targeting any source of the regime’s illicit revenue, while Bessent is scheduled to have nearly a dozen bilateral meetings with various foreign finance leaders where he will raise this directly with them.
US Central Command Commander Cooper says US military successfully cleared sea mines laid in the Strait of Hormuz and international shipping lanes are open, while it was also claimed that Iran has not exported a single barrel of oil since the start of the naval blockade.
US Navy is facing a severe financial crisis as the ongoing war with Iran forces the service to divert funds from payroll and maintenance accounts to cover combat operations, according to The Guardian sources.
Any agreements concluded between Iran and Oman are of no importance to the US, and there are no ongoing or scheduled negotiations with Iran, while the naval blockade remains fully in place and the Strait is open and cleared of all mines, according to a US source cited by Al Jazeera.
Iran’s top security official Rezaei warned Iran would strike US military and economic interests if the US starts "mischief" against Iran during a meeting with the Qatari Foreign Minister. He also said that the US must take practical steps to meet Iran's conditions before Iran moves to reopen the Strait, while adding that Iran should not trust the US as it has repeatedly betrayed diplomacy and negotiations.
Iran-Oman deal on Strait of Hormuz is said to not matter as President Trump controls the blockade, according to NY Post citing a US official, while the deal, which an IRGC spokesman claimed was reached on Wednesday, remains subject to internal approval in Iran and lacks US recognition.
Iran's security chief Rezaei said mediators asked Iran for its conditions to open Hormuz and Tehran is preparing a list, while they have agreed to a corridor with Oman, part of which lies in Omani waters and some in Iranian waters. Furthermore, he said Iran exported 80mln barrels of oil during the ceasefire and will target US economic interests if the blockade continues. Rezaei also commented that Dahiyeh and Beirut are their red lines, and that a possible war is different from previous wars.
Qatar's PM said the talks in Tehran reaffirmed continuing efforts to de-escalate and promote regional security and stability.

US TRADE

EQUITIES

US stocks were somewhat varied as all major indices closed higher on Thursday with gains led by Nvidia (NVDA) following strong earnings, including robust data centre revenue and upbeat long-term guidance. However, advances were far from broad-based, as the equal-weight S&P closed lower and every sector finished in the red aside from Technology, which rallied around 3%.
SPX +0.72% at 7,731, NDX +1.43% at 29,642, DJI +0.20% at 53,574, RUT +0.28% at 3,014.
Click here for a detailed summary.

TARIFFS/TRADE

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Canadian PM Carney walked away from trade talks for political reasons and he expects Canada to want to talk after separatist votes.
Canada added 50% tariffs to US copper wire and wood charcoal.
Canada's ambassador to Washington said Canada cannot accept a US trade deal unless it ensures survival of robust Canadian auto assembly and parts industry, while he stated that Canada's removal of tariffs on US seafood was done more for technical reasons than as a sign of a quick resumption of negotiations.
Chinese executives may join Chinese President Xi's US trip, as a trade truce extension is almost certain, according to SCMP.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

Fed's Hammack (2026 voter, hawkish dissenter) said the job market is broadly in balance and the latest inflation data is in line with expectations. She also said that policy needs to be restricted and expects slow progress on inflation, which she sees ending the year around 3%. Furthermore, she said inflation might ease to around 2.5% at best next year and stated she goes into every meeting with an open mind and is open-minded about the cadence of Fed meeting schedules.
Fed's Collins (2028 voter) said the recent PCE report did not change the modal outlook that current monetary policy is restrictive and will likely lead to a gradual disinflation, while she added that recent inflation data is mixed, with the headline figure stronger than expected but promising signs in the details. Collins separately commented that a rate increase is warranted if inflation disappoints, according to WSJ.
US Treasury official said bond yields are to decline as inflation eases and that the Trump administration aims to reduce long bond yields. The official also commented that the G20 finance meeting will focus on boosting economic growth and cutting global imbalances, while they hope to have a joint communique on boosting growth, reducing global imbalances, tackling sovereign debt challenges and financial literacy.
US President Trump's administration is pressing Mexico to do more to stop migrants from reaching the US border, with Secretary of State Rubio raising the issue in a private meeting with Mexico's Foreign Minister.
US banking regulators are narrowing their enforcement and supervision standards to put greater emphasis on material financial risk, according to FT.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

APAC stocks were mostly positive but with gains capped following the varied performance stateside, where all indices rose and the Nasdaq outperformed post-NVIDIA earnings, but almost all sectors were in the red aside from tech, while the attention turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Warsh's keynote speech.
ASX 200 was higher with notable outperformance in tech, although consumer stocks and real estate lagged amid the recent increased bets for the RBA to resume its hiking cycle next month.
Nikkei 225 rallied as participants digested the latest data releases, including a surprise decline in the Unemployment Rate, while Tokyo CPI matched estimates, with the Core reading remaining beneath the 2% goal.
KOSPI bucked the trend amid weakness in South Korean tech giants despite the sector doing much of the heavy lifting across global markets, while there was a report that SK Hynix lagged rivals in NAND process-node transitions, with slower upgrades and reduced NAND capex eroding its cost competitiveness and market share.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat but with the upside limited amid a slew of earnings releases and with participants also bracing for results from Chinese big banks.
US equity futures were rangebound as all attention turns to the Jackson Hole Symposium.
European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.7% on Thursday.

FX

DXY was rangebound in quiet FX trade as participants await Fed Chair Warsh's inaugural Jackson Hole keynote address, and with the Fed Chair seen to be under pressure to clarify his views on interest rates, which he has been tight-lipped about and has refrained from providing explicit forward guidance. Nonetheless, there were recent comments from other Fed officials, but they did little to shift the dial, with hawkish dissenter Hammack stating that policy needs to be restricted and expects slow progress on inflation, while 2028 voter Collins said the recent PCE report did not change the modal outlook and that current monetary policy is restrictive, which will likely lead to a gradual disinflation.
EUR/USD traded little changed with the single currency unmoved by the recent uneventful ECB minutes, which noted that it was argued that a rate increase would not address the underlying cause of the rise in inflation.
GBP/USD struggles for direction in the absence of pertinent catalysts and with resistance at the 1.3600 level.
USD/JPY was choppy at the 159.00 handle with little reaction seen following the in-line Tokyo CPI data.
Antipodeans gradually edged higher amid ongoing rate hike expectations for both the RBA and RBNZ.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 6.7811 vs exp. 6.7208 (prev. 6.7840).

FIXED INCOME

10yr UST futures lacked direction following the recent choppy mood as participants await any clues on interest rate policy from the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Bund futures lingered around this week's lows beneath the 124.00 level, with participants awaiting German unemployment data and central bank comments from Wyoming, with ECB's Schnabel to take part in discussions.
10yr JGB futures continued to retreat following the recent hawkish rhetoric from BoJ Deputy Governor Himino, with prices also not helped by the in-line Tokyo inflation data and a weaker 2yr JGB auction.

COMMODITIES

Crude futures slightly pulled back overnight after gaining yesterday as the US-Iran conflict continued to show no signs of improvement, as the Trump administration has repeatedly told mediators it has no interest in going back to the terms of the MoU it reached with Iran in June, with Trump willing to wait and see if squeezing Iran economically bears fruit. Furthermore, there were several energy-related headlines, but they did little to spur oil prices, including reports that Venezuela was mulling leaving OPEC.
Venezuela is reportedly mulling leaving OPEC, according to people familiar with the matter.
US Treasury issued a Venezuela General License for Venezuelan oil and petrochemicals, while it authorised oil and gas operations for six specified entities.
US is reportedly close to striking a "massive" deal for Venezuelan oil fields, according to Axios.
US President Trump is expected to convene a meeting with US refiners and fuel retailers next week to highlight efforts to bring down gas prices.
US President Trump reportedly met with Energy, EPA and Agriculture secretaries and discussed pending applications for refiner exemptions from US biofuel laws, according to sources. They also discussed a plan to compensate biofuel producers in future years for any business lost due to refiner exemptions.
US President Trump's administration is mulling a 500mln gallon boost to 2027 biofuel quotas to offset exemptions, according to sources
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were said to have climbed to around 7mln-8mln bpd from around 4mln bpd in mid-July, easing some global supply concerns. It was also reported that Kuwait and Qatar are to have restored shipments to around 70% of pre-war levels, with shuttle operations helping move more crude to international markets.
Kuwait Petroleum Co. restarted parts of the Al Zour Oil refinery (615k BPD) as of August 19th.
Spot gold trickled lower with the precious metal back beneath the USD 4,600/oz level following recent choppy price action and an ultimately flat dollar as participants await Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.
Copper futures traded little changed amid the mixed sentiment seen across risk assets.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin saw two-way price action after failing to sustain an early climb above the USD 81,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

Japanese PM Takaichi confirmed that a cabinet reshuffle will take place mid-to-late September.
Japanese Finance Minister Katayama will join the G20 Finance Ministers' meeting in North Carolina and will hold discussions on the global economy and international financial conditions with G20 counterparts.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara said Japan will respond calmly and appropriately to relations with China and will keep dialogue open.
China's NDRC spokesperson said robot development must be tailored to local conditions and pursued in a sound and orderly manner, while the spokesperson added that the robot industry must be developed on local resources and industrial advantages, avoiding blindly following trends.

DATA RECAP

Japanese Tokyo CPI (Aug YY) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 1.8%)
Japanese Tokyo Core CPI (Aug YY) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.7%)
Japanese Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (Aug YY) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 2.0%)
Japanese Unemployment Rate (Jul) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%)
Japanese Jobs/Applications Ratio (Jul) 1.18 vs. Exp. 1.19 (Prev. 1.18)

GEOPOLITICS

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

US President Trump told Axios in a phone interview on Thursday that he is not concerned that Russia will attack NATO countries. Furthermore, Trump called CIA Director Ratcliffe's trip "standard business" and expressed puzzlement over media accounts of it, while it was separately reported that Trump said he had good talks with Russian President Putin and that Putin is not attacking NATO territory.
CIA Director Ratcliffe met with Russia's head of foreign intelligence service in Moscow this week to request that Russia stop sharing intelligence with Iran, according to NBC citing sources.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces hit a tanker in the Izmail Port, according to Interfax.

OTHER

A Dominican cargo ship sank off Romania after a strike, with 12 crew rescued and one injured, while it was still unknown what and who struck the vessel.
US military is reportedly facing a "beyond critical" shortage of Patriot missiles in Europe, largely driven by the Iran war, according to AP sources.
Poland's Defence Minister said the US will scout for military base locations in the country.
South Korea's National Security Adviser said South Korea seeks closer cooperation with the US on current issues including investments, Coupang and national security affairs. The adviser also stated that South Korea must not be sidelined in efforts to resume US-North Korea dialogue, and that any US-North Korea dialogue must not lead to weakening of South Korea's security readiness.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

UK Chancellor Healey could suffer a hit of several billion pounds to the public finances as lower immigration forecasts dent the outlook for economic growth, according to warnings by analysts cited by FT.
EU's industrial push strains ties with Switzerland and Norway, with the bloc’s closest partners warning that ‘Made in Europe’ policies risk shutting them out of the single market, according to FT.
ECB's Kazaks said that inflation must not be allowed to take root.

DATA RECAP

UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Aug) 53 (Prev. 49).