Affirm (AFRM) Q4 2026 (USD): EPS 4.62, revenue 1.166bln (exp. 1.106bln). GMV 14.1bln

Buy-now-pay-later prints of this kind tend to trade on GMV and revenue less costs against credit performance, with the forward GMV guide carrying more weight than the backward quarter since the market prices the growth trajectory rather than the delivered number. The pattern across past reporting cycles for consumer credit names is that the initial move on the headline beat is often faded or extended depending on what the call says about delinquencies, funding costs, and merchant take rates, which are the variables that separate a growth story from a credit-quality problem. The sequential guidance here frames the following quarter's growth rate, and in high-multiple fintech the gap between guided and whispered GMV has historically been the decisive input to the after-hours reaction. Worth noting is that the peer set moves in sympathy on these prints, so the read-through to other consumer credit and payments names is part of the established sequence. The follow-ons are the call commentary on credit metrics and any disclosure on funding or securitisation terms, which tend to settle the direction after the headline volatility.