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Breaking

US NFP (Jan) 256K vs. Exp. 165K (Prev. 212K, Rev. 307K); unemployment rate falls to 4.0% vs. Exp. 4.1%

Data

US Average Hourly Earnings MM (Jan) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)

Breaking

Fed's Waller: January CPI data supports holding rates steady at the March meeting; still sees cuts later in 2026

Central Banks

ECB's Lagarde says disinflation process is well on track; data-dependent approach remains appropriate

Equities

NVDA prelim Q4 revenue USD 39.3bln vs. Exp. USD 38.1bln; guides Q1 revenue to USD 43bln vs. Exp. USD 41.8bln

Energy

OPEC+ reportedly discussing phased unwinding of voluntary cuts beginning April; Brent slips below USD 76/bbl

Geopolitical

White House confirms 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports effective March 12; no country exemptions

Fixed Income

US 10yr yield surges 14bps to 4.63% post-NFP; 2yr up 10bps to 4.37%; curve steepens sharply

Central Banks

BoE cuts Bank Rate by 25bps to 4.25% as expected (7-2 vote); Dhingra and Taylor dissented for 50bps

Data

US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan) 50.9 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 49.3); Prices Paid 54.9 vs. Exp. 52.5

Equities

AAPL reports record Q1 revenue USD 124.3bln (+4% Y/Y); Services revenue hits all-time high of USD 26.3bln

Geopolitical

China Commerce Ministry warns of countermeasures if US proceeds with additional semiconductor export restrictions

Energy

DoE Crude Oil Inventories (w/e 7 Feb) -3.4mln vs. Exp. -1.8mln (Prev. +4.1mln); Gasoline -2.7mln

Central Banks

BoJ's Ueda signals further rate hikes if economy, prices move in line with projections; watching wage data closely

Breaking

US President signs executive order imposing 10% tariff on all Chinese goods effective immediately

Fixed Income

German 10yr Bund yield rises 8bps to 2.48% after strong EZ GDP data; peripheral spreads tighten

Data

EU CPI YY Flash (Jan) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.4%); Core CPI 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.6%

Equities

TSLA announces 3-for-1 stock split; board authorises additional USD 10bln buyback programme

Geopolitical

EU proposes retaliatory tariff package targeting USD 28bln of US goods in response to steel/aluminium tariffs

Energy

IEA monthly report: raises 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.4mln bpd from 1.1mln bpd

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Research & Analysis
Feb 11, 2026
US Pre-Market Preview: NFP FridayPre-Market Preview

Key levels and scenarios ahead of January payrolls

Consensus expects +185K with unemployment steady at 4.1%. A print above 220K could trigger hawkish Fed repricing with USD strength and equity weakness. Below 150K opens the door for March cut pricing to rise above 50%.

ECB Rate Decision: What to ExpectEvent Preview

Preview of the February ECB meeting and press conference

Markets price a 25bp cut as near-certain. Focus on forward guidance — will Lagarde signal March pause or continued easing? Key language around "data-dependent" vs "restrictive" framing will drive EUR/USD.

Daily Macro BriefingDaily Briefing

Overnight developments and the session ahead

Asian equities mixed on China PMI miss (49.1 vs 49.8 exp). European bourses opened lower on weak German industrial production. US futures flat ahead of NFP. Treasury yields steady, DXY consolidating at 104.20.

Feb 10, 2026
FOMC Minutes Deep DiveNewsquawk Analysis

Parsing the January meeting minutes for policy signals

Minutes revealed "several participants" favored holding rates through Q1. The discussion around balance sheet runoff suggests QT taper announcement could come as early as March. No urgency to cut — inflation concerns persist.

Post-NFP Reaction AnalysisPost-Event Analysis

Market response to the stronger-than-expected jobs report

NFP printed +256K vs +185K exp with unemployment falling to 4.0%. Initial reaction: SPY -0.8%, DXY +0.6%, 2Y yield +12bp. Fed Funds futures shifted — March cut probability fell from 42% to 18%. Equities recovered half the losses into the close.

Weekly Energy OutlookNewsquawk Analysis

Crude, natural gas, and refined products weekly review

WTI settled at $78.40, up 3.2% on the week as OPEC+ signaled output restraint through Q2. EIA reported a 4.6M bbl draw vs -1.2M exp. Natural gas surged 8% on Arctic blast forecasts. Crack spreads widened to seasonal highs.

Feb 9, 2026
BoE Rate Decision PreviewEvent Preview

February MPC meeting expectations and GBP scenarios

Markets split 60/40 for a 25bp hold vs cut. UK CPI at 4.0% argues for patience, but weakening GDP data supports easing. Watch the vote split — a 6-3 or closer hold vote could be GBP-negative on dovish lean.

US-China Tariff Escalation: Impact AssessmentNewsquawk Analysis

Sector-by-sector analysis of proposed 25% tariff expansion

New tariff threats target $200B in Chinese tech imports. Semiconductor names most exposed: NVDA, AMD, INTC. Supply chain disruption timeline estimated at 4-6 weeks. Historical precedent from 2018-2019 trade war suggests 5-8% SPX drawdown risk.

Feb 8, 2026
Pre-Market Preview: CPI DayPre-Market Preview

Inflation report scenarios and key market levels

Core CPI expected +0.3% MoM, 3.7% YoY. A hot print (>0.4% MoM) could send 10Y yield above 4.70% and SPX below 5,800. Cool print (<0.2%) would reignite rate cut bets. Shelter inflation the key component to watch.

Post-ECB Analysis: Lagarde Dovish PivotPost-Event Analysis

ECB signals openness to continued easing through H1

ECB cut 25bp as expected but Lagarde dropped "restrictive" language. EUR/USD fell 50 pips to 1.0720. Markets now price 75bp of additional cuts by June. Peripheral spreads tightened — BTP-Bund at 130bp, lowest since September.

Feb 7, 2026
NVDA Earnings Preview: AI Capex CycleEvent Preview

Q4 expectations, guidance risks, and positioning analysis

Street expects $22.1B revenue (+55% YoY) with data center at $18.8B. Options imply ±8% earnings move. Key risks: China export restrictions, Blackwell ramp timeline, hyperscaler capex signals. Short interest at historic lows.

Daily Macro BriefingDaily Briefing

Global market recap and forward calendar

SPX closed at new ATH (5,920) led by tech. European close: DAX +0.4%, FTSE flat. BoJ Ueda hinted at further normalization — USD/JPY briefly touched 151. Week ahead: FOMC minutes, UK CPI, flash PMIs, NVDA earnings.

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Truth Social
🏛️
@realDonaldTrump

Just signed a new Executive Order imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. We are bringing manufacturing BACK to America! This will create thousands of jobs and strengthen our economy. FAIR TRADE, not FREE TRADE!

45.2K128.9K
🏛️
@realDonaldTrump

China has been taking advantage of the United States for too long. NEW reciprocal tariffs of 35% on Chinese goods go into effect NEXT WEEK. This is about FAIRNESS. American workers deserve a level playing field!

38.7K112.4K
🏛️
@realDonaldTrump

Great meeting at the White House with top CEOs about bringing semiconductor manufacturing to the US. BIG announcements coming soon on CHIPS investment. America will lead the world in technology!

22.1K87.3K
🏛️
@realDonaldTrump

The European Union must stop their unfair trade practices with the United States. We are reviewing ALL trade agreements. If they don't negotiate fairly, tariffs are coming. America First means FAIR deals!

31.5K95.6K
🏛️
@realDonaldTrump

JUST ANNOUNCED: New deregulation order removing 10 federal regulations for every 1 new regulation. This will UNLEASH American business and drive the stock market to new highs. The best is yet to come!

27.8K103.2K
🏛️
@realDonaldTrump

Canada must open their dairy markets to American farmers. The current 270% tariff on US dairy products is UNACCEPTABLE. We will respond in kind if this doesn't change immediately!

18.9K72.4K
🏛️
@realDonaldTrump

Our economy is BOOMING! GDP growth at 3.2%, unemployment at historic lows, and the stock market keeps breaking records. Tax cuts are working. Regulation cuts are working. AMERICA IS WINNING!

41.3K134.7K
🏛️
@realDonaldTrump

Executive Order signed today fast-tracking permits for critical mineral mining on federal land. We will NOT be dependent on China for lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. Energy DOMINANCE!

19.4K68.2K
🏛️
@realDonaldTrump

Big pharmaceutical announcement coming tomorrow. We are going to bring drug prices DOWN for all Americans. The days of price gouging are OVER. Drug companies have been put on notice!

35.6K119.8K
🏛️
@realDonaldTrump

Spoke with President of Mexico about border security AND trade. New trade provisions being negotiated as part of USMCA review. Mexico understands — we need FAIR trade or no trade!

24.1K82.5K
🏛️
@realDonaldTrump

Regulatory review complete on crypto and digital assets. We will make America the CRYPTO CAPITAL of the world! New framework coming that supports innovation while protecting investors. Big week ahead!

52.3K167.4K
🏛️
@realDonaldTrump

Defense budget increase of $50B signed today. We are rebuilding the military and supporting our troops. This includes massive investment in AI and hypersonic technology. PEACE through STRENGTH!

29.7K91.2K
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Fin X
W
Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone

$NVDA — NVIDIA beats Q4 estimates: EPS $5.16 vs $4.64 est., Revenue $22.1B vs $20.4B est. Data center revenue up 409% YoY. Stock surging 8% after hours.

4.8K12.3K
U
Unusual Whales@unusual_whales

BREAKING: $SPY drops 1.2% as CPI comes in hot — headline CPI +3.5% vs +3.3% expected. Core CPI +3.9% vs +3.7% est. Rate cut expectations for June being repriced aggressively.

6.2K15.8K
N
Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraos

Fed Chair Powell in testimony: "We need to see more progress on inflation before adjusting rates. The economy remains resilient and the labor market is strong. We are in no hurry to cut."

3.4K8.9K
Z
Zerohedge@zaborhedge

$TSLA — Tesla announces 20% price cut across Model Y lineup in US, Europe, and China. Analysts warn of margin compression. $TSLA down 4.3% pre-market.

5.1K11.2K
F
Financialjuice@financialjuice

ECB's Lagarde: "We are confident that inflation is on a sustainable path toward our 2% target. The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach." EUR/USD spikes to 1.0920.

1.8K4.2K
E
Eric Balchunas@EricBalchunas

$AAPL — Apple reports iPhone revenue miss: $65.8B vs $68.2B expected. Services revenue record at $23.1B saves the quarter. Cook cites macro softness in China. Stock flat after-hours.

2.9K7.6K
J
Jim Cramer@jimcramer

Markets pricing in NO rate cuts until September now. The 10Y yield just hit 4.65%. This is a sea change for $QQQ and growth stocks. Buckle up.

3.7K9.4K
I
Investing.com@Investingcom

$AMZN — Amazon Web Services Q4 revenue: $24.2B, up 13% YoY. AWS operating income $7.2B, margins expanding. Jassy says AI workloads driving "unprecedented demand" for cloud capacity.

2.2K5.8K
M
Macro Frog@MacroFrog

NFP Friday recap: +353K jobs vs +185K expected. Unemployment rate 3.7%. Average hourly earnings +4.5% YoY. This is NOT a labor market that needs rate cuts. $DXY ripping higher.

4.1K10.7K
S
Squawk Box@SquawkCNBC

$META — Meta announces $50B stock buyback program and first-ever dividend of $0.50/share. Revenue beats at $40.1B vs $39.2B est. Stock jumps 15% in extended trading.

5.5K14.2K
L
LiveSquawk@LiveSquawk

BOJ Governor Ueda signals potential rate hike at March meeting if wage data confirms trend. USD/JPY drops 180 pips to 148.20. JGB yields surging. Big implications for carry trades.

2.6K6.3K
G
Goldman Sachs@GoldmanSachs

GS raises $GOOGL price target to $195 from $170 (Buy). "AI integration across Search, Cloud, and YouTube is a multi-year growth driver. We see 20%+ upside from current levels."

1.9K5.1K
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Energy & Commodities
🛢️
OPEC Secretariat

OPEC+ agrees to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2mln BPD through end of Q2 2026, citing softening global demand outlook and rising non-OPEC supply.

📊
IEA

IEA revises 2026 global oil demand growth forecast down to 1.1mln BPD from 1.3mln BPD, citing weakening Chinese industrial activity and EV adoption accelerating beyond prior estimates.

📈
EIA

US crude inventories fall by 4.2mln barrels vs expectations of -1.8mln. Cushing stocks down 1.1mln barrels to lowest level since November. Gasoline builds 2.8mln barrels.

⚡
Platts

European TTF natural gas futures surge 8% to EUR 47.50/MWh as cold snap forecast extends through late February, raising concerns over storage depletion rates ahead of shoulder season.

🔧
Argus

Unplanned maintenance at BP Whiting refinery (435K BPD) extends to 3 weeks. Midwest crack spreads widen $2.40 on the session as gasoline supply tightens regionally.

🌍
Reuters

Saudi Aramco raises March OSPs for Asian buyers by $0.50/barrel to $2.10 premium over Oman/Dubai average, signaling confidence in Asian demand recovery.

🔌
Pipeline Journal

Keystone Pipeline resumes partial operations at reduced capacity following leak detection in South Dakota segment. TC Energy targets full restart within 10 days.

🚢
LNG World

Cheniere Energy secures 20-year LNG supply deal with European utility for 2 MTPA from Sabine Pass expansion. Deal includes Henry Hub-linked pricing with floor of $3.50/MMBtu.

🛢️
OGJ

US rig count rises by 5 to 589 in latest Baker Hughes data. Permian Basin adds 3 rigs while Haynesville shale drops 1 as natural gas prices remain subdued below $2.80/MMBtu.

Curated External Intelligence

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Crypto Intelligence
C
CoinDesk

BTC breaks above $98,000 resistance as spot ETF inflows hit $1.2B in single day — largest since January launch. BlackRock IBIT leads with $620M. Analysts eye psychological $100K level.

T
The Block

SEC approves spot ETH ETF applications from BlackRock and Fidelity. Trading expected to begin within 30 days. ETH surges 12% to $4,280 on the news.

G
Glassnode

On-chain alert: BTC exchange reserves drop to 5-year low of 2.1M coins. Long-term holder supply at ATH. Supply shock thesis strengthening as demand from ETFs outpaces mining output.

D
DL News

Tether reports $6.2B net profit for Q4 2025, holds $95B in US Treasuries. USDT market cap reaches $128B. Circle USDC gaining ground with $42B. Stablecoin total market cap hits $200B.

M
Messari

SOL DeFi TVL surges past $18B as Jupiter DEX volumes rival Uniswap. Solana processes 4,200 TPS in latest benchmark. Institutional interest growing after Franklin Templeton SOL staking launch.

C
CryptoSlate

CFTC Chairman signals intent to classify XRP as commodity, potentially removing SEC jurisdiction. Ripple stock jumps 18%. Legal clarity could open US exchange re-listings.

D
Delphi Digital

Ethereum Layer 2 rollup fees drop 95% post-Dencun upgrade. Base and Arbitrum lead with sub-$0.01 transactions. L2 combined TVL now exceeds $45B. ETH mainnet gas averaging 8 gwei.

T
The Defiant

Aave V4 launches on Ethereum mainnet with unified liquidity layer. GHO stablecoin integration drives $2.8B in new deposits within 48 hours. Protocol revenue up 340% QoQ.

B
Blockworks

MicroStrategy adds another 12,000 BTC at average price of $96,400. Total holdings now 252,000 BTC ($24.7B). Saylor: "Bitcoin is the apex asset for corporate treasuries."

D
Decrypt

Coinbase reports record Q4 revenue of $2.1B, beating estimates by 23%. Institutional trading volume up 180% YoY. Derivatives platform gaining market share from offshore exchanges.

C
CoinTelegraph

BIS report warns central banks to accelerate CBDC development as stablecoin adoption outpaces regulatory frameworks. 11 G20 nations now in pilot phase. Digital euro timeline moved to 2027.

K
Kaiko Research

BTC/ETH correlation drops to 0.42 — lowest since 2021. ETH showing independent price action on ETF momentum. SOL beta to BTC declining as ecosystem fundamentals drive valuation.

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External Intelligence

BREAKING: $NVDA beats Q4 earnings estimates, revenue up 265% YoY — stock +8% after hours

$NVDA

JUST IN: President announces new tariff schedule on Chinese imports effective March 1

OPEC+ considering additional 500K bpd cut at March meeting — delegates

$CL$XOM$CVX

Bitcoin ETF inflows hit $1.2B daily record as BTC breaks $105K

$BTC$IBIT$GBTC

Fed's Waller signals openness to rate cut if inflation data cooperates in coming months

Treasury Secretary confirms no plans for dollar devaluation — "strong dollar policy remains"

US crude inventories draw 4.2M barrels vs 1.5M expected — EIA weekly report

$CL$USO

Ethereum Foundation announces Pectra upgrade timeline for Q2 — staking improvements

$ETH

$AAPL reportedly in talks with Google for Gemini AI integration in iOS 19

$AAPL$GOOGL

Commerce Department to announce new semiconductor export controls next week

$NVDA$AMD$INTC

Natural gas futures surge 8% as Arctic blast forecast hits northern US and Europe

$NG$UNG

SEC Commissioner Peirce hints at spot Solana ETF approval by Q3

$SOL

US 10Y yield spikes to 4.72% after hot PPI data — bond selloff accelerates

Executive Order signed: 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, no exceptions

$X$NUE$CLF

Tether market cap surpasses $130B — stablecoin dominance reaches 72%

$USDT

Saudi Aramco cuts March OSP for Asia by $0.50/bbl — signals softer demand outlook

Goldman raises S&P 500 year-end target to 6,500 citing "AI capex supercycle"

$GS

Libya restarts El Sharara oilfield — 300K bpd returning to market within days

$CL

President says "big announcement coming on tax cuts" — details expected this week

BlackRock IBIT Bitcoin ETF crosses $50B AUM milestone in record time

$IBIT$BLK

$TSLA deliveries miss estimates in Q1, China sales down 12% — shares slide 4%

$TSLA

Baker Hughes rig count drops by 9 to 576 — lowest since June, signaling capex pullback

Trade Representative confirms EU auto tariff discussions "making great progress"

$F$GM$STLA

MicroStrategy acquires additional 15,000 BTC at average price of $98,500

$MSTR$BTC

Initial jobless claims 198K vs 210K expected — labor market remains tight

Brent crude breaks above $85/bbl resistance on Middle East supply disruption fears

$BZ$CL

White House: Infrastructure bill to include $200B for domestic chip manufacturing

$INTC$TSM

Coinbase reports Q4 trading volume up 185% YoY — institutional adoption surges

$COIN

$META announces $50B share buyback program and 5% dividend increase

$META

EU carbon credit prices hit record EUR 110/tonne — energy transition costs mounting

President criticizes Fed for "keeping rates too high" — calls for immediate cuts

Bitcoin hash rate hits all-time high at 750 EH/s — network security strengthens

$BTC

CME FedWatch now pricing 62% chance of June rate cut, up from 45% last week

Houthi attack disrupts Red Sea shipping — tanker rates spike 35% on rerouting

New sanctions package targeting Russian energy exports to be signed tomorrow

DeFi TVL recovers above $200B led by Ethereum restaking protocols

$ETH

$AMZN AWS revenue growth accelerates to 19% — cloud spending boom continues

$AMZN

ExxonMobil raises Permian Basin production target to 2.3M bpd by 2027

$XOM

President announces "reciprocal tariffs" framework — matching duties on all trading partners

Ripple settles remaining SEC case — XRP surges 25% on regulatory clarity

$XRP

VIX spikes above 22 as markets digest tariff uncertainty — options activity surges

IEA revises global oil demand growth forecast down to 1.1M bpd for 2025

Administration considering ban on Chinese EV imports citing national security concerns

$TSLA$RIVN$NIO

South Korea lifts institutional crypto trading ban — exchanges prepare for inflows

$BTC$ETH

JPMorgan CEO Dimon warns of "considerable turbulence" ahead from geopolitical risks

$JPM

HHS Secretary to announce major pharmaceutical pricing reforms at noon presser

$PFE$JNJ$MRK
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The Fly

$NVDA raises Q1 revenue guidance to $26B+ citing surging data center demand. Stock up 6% in after-hours. Management sees "no signs of slowing" in AI infrastructure buildout.

📰
Benzinga

$AAPL Q1 earnings beat: EPS $2.18 vs $2.11 est, revenue $124.3B vs $121.1B est. Services segment hits new record at $23.1B. iPhone revenue inline despite China weakness.

🪰
The Fly

$TSLA announces 10-for-1 stock split effective March 15. Board also authorizes $15B share buyback program. Shares rally 4.2% on the news.

📰
Benzinga

$AMZN AWS revenue grows 22% YoY to $28.4B, accelerating from prior quarter. Operating margin expands to 37%. Cloud backlog reaches $186B, up from $155B last quarter.

🪰
The Fly

$JPM CEO Jamie Dimon warns of "significant geopolitical risks" in annual letter. Bank raises loan loss reserves by $900M. NII guidance raised to $91B for FY26.

📰
Benzinga

$META launching AI-powered ad creative tools for all advertisers. Early tests show 22% improvement in click-through rates. Reality Labs losses narrow to $3.1B in Q4.

🪰
The Fly

BREAKING: $GOOGL in advanced talks to acquire Wiz for $32B, reviving deal that collapsed in 2024. Would be Google's largest acquisition ever. $PANW down 3% on competitive fears.

📰
Benzinga

$MSFT Azure growth reaccelerates to 33% as enterprise AI adoption broadens. Copilot commercial revenue up 4x YoY. Company raises FY26 capex guidance to $68B.

🪰
The Fly

$DIS theme parks revenue tops $9B in Q1, driven by Epic Universe opening. Streaming subscriber growth slows but ARPU rises 11%. Board approves 50% dividend increase.

📰
Benzinga

$BA receives FAA clearance for 737 MAX production rate increase to 42/month. Deliveries expected to normalize by Q3. Free cash flow turns positive for first time in 6 quarters.

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Headlines

14:32Fed's Powell signals patience on rate cuts amid sticky inflation
Rate CutsCentral Banks
14:28NVDA surges 8% after record data center revenue beats estimates
Mag 7
14:25ECB Lagarde hints at dovish tilt as Eurozone growth stalls
Rate CutsCentral Banks
14:22AAPL announces $110B buyback program, largest in corporate history
Mag 7
14:18US 10Y yield falls 8bps as markets price in rate cut expectations for September
Rate Cuts
14:15BoE holds rates steady, signals easing cycle could begin in August
Rate CutsCentral Banks
14:12TSLA Cybertruck deliveries hit 50K milestone ahead of schedule
Mag 7
14:08WTI crude rallies 3% on OPEC+ production cut extension
14:05MSFT Azure revenue up 35% YoY, cloud momentum accelerates
Mag 7
14:02Gold hits $2,400 as traders bet on Fed pivot in H2
Rate CutsCentral Banks
13:58US initial jobless claims rise to 242K, above expectations
13:55GOOGL launches Gemini 2.0 Ultra, integrates across Search and Cloud
Mag 7
13:52BoJ Ueda says accommodation remains appropriate given wage-price dynamics
Rate CutsCentral Banks
13:48META rolls out new AI ad targeting tools, expects 20% revenue uplift
Mag 7
13:45S&P 500 closes at record high as dovish Fed commentary lifts sentiment
Rate CutsCentral Banks
13:42China PBoC cuts 1Y MLF rate by 10bps, signaling further easing ahead
Rate Cuts
13:38AMZN Prime Day sales top $14B, e-commerce demand rebounds
Mag 7
13:35EUR/USD climbs to 1.0950 on ECB-Fed policy divergence bets
Central Banks
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