[ANALYSIS] Day 25: Diplomatic confusion rises; Gulf states are moving closer toward potential direct involvement

WHERE WE STAND:

US postponed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days following what Trump described as “very good and productive” discussions.
Iran denied any talks took place, calling US claims “fake news” and accusing Washington of market manipulation, according to Iranian state media.
Conflicting signals emerged with reports of backchannel messaging via Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan.
Hostilities intensified overnight with Iran striking Israel and US Gulf allies, while Israel expanded strikes in Iran and Lebanon.
Iranian Foreign Araghchi reportedly informed US envoy Witkoff that Mojtaba Khamenei agreed to negotiations, Al Arabiya reported citing Yedioth Ahronoth.

Iranian FM Araghchi reportedly informed US envoy Witkoff that Mojtaba Khamenei agreed to negotiations, Al Arabiya reported citing Yedioth Ahronoth.
Trump reiterated talks occurred, said Iran “wants to settle”, and confirmed energy strikes were temporarily postponed.
Iranian officials denied any talks took place, stating no direct or indirect negotiations have occurred, according to Iranian state media and official statements.
Iran claimed US messaging is aimed at lowering oil prices and buying time for military plans, according to Iranian state-linked media.
Backchannel communications are reportedly ongoing via Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan, according to Reuters, CBS and Al Jazeera.
Iran maintains key conditions of reparations and acknowledgement of US “aggression”.
Iranian leadership reiterated war continues until sanctions are lifted and damages compensated, according to state TV.

Washington reportedly set April 9th as a target to end the war, according to Yedioth Ahronoth citing an Israeli official.
Trump administration is reportedly exploring regime change scenarios including backing Ghalibaf, POLITICO reported.
Reports of Ghalibaf engaging with US officials in Islamabad were dismissed as false, according to reports.
US officials are weighing deployment of airborne troops to Iran, the NYT reported.
No change in plans to deploy additional forces, with thousands of Marines and sailors continuing toward the region, according to CBS and WSJ.
US officials said the Strait of Hormuz contains around a dozen Iranian mines.
Iran denied mining is necessary, claiming full control of the Strait, according to an IRGC spokesperson.
Iran signalled willingness to offer significant nuclear concessions, according to an Israeli official cited by Channel 12.
Iran may agree to freeze its missile programme for five years, Channel 12 reported.
Iran continues to reject US deadlines and negotiation conditions, according to Iranian officials.
Closure of Hormuz and mining remains on the table in case of escalation, according to Iranian officials.

Iran launched missiles and drones at Israel and US Gulf allies overnight, according to Sky News.
Sirens triggered across more than 100 locations in Israel, according to Israeli media.
Israel continued strikes in Iran and expanded operations in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah, according to Sky and the IDF.
Israeli officials assess missile launches cannot be fully neutralised even with prolonged operations, Ynet reported.
Strikes hit gas infrastructure in Isfahan and a pipeline linked to a power station in Khorramshahr, according to Iranian state media.
Missile site in Andimeshk was heavily targeted, according to Iranian state media.
Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia intercepted incoming missiles and drones, according to Sky and local defence ministries.
Explosions were reported at a US base in Kuwait, according to regional reports.
Rockets were launched from Iraq toward a US base in Syria, marking a new escalation vector, Reuters reported.

Israeli PM Netanyahu ordered continued strikes in Iran and Lebanon, according to Sky News.
Israel is concerned the US may pursue an unfavourable deal with Iran, according to Israeli media.
Israeli officials assess Iranian missile launches will persist throughout the war, Ynet reported.
Israel signalling expanded objectives in Lebanon including potential territorial changes toward the Litani River, Reuters reported.

Gulf states are moving closer toward potential direct involvement alongside the US, WSJ reported.
Saudi Arabia intercepted drones while Kuwait and Bahrain activated air defences, according to Sky News and defence ministries.
Bahrain circulated a draft UN Security Council resolution on freedom of navigation in Hormuz, the Jerusalem Post reported.