[ANALYSIS] Iran War Day 46: Fresh talks eyed as blockade takes hold

TALKS

The US and Iran are discussing another round of face-to-face talks after the Islamabad negotiations ended without a deal, with officials aiming to meet again before the two-week ceasefire expires.
Reports suggest a potential second round of talks could take place on Thursday, with sources indicating the next round may again be held in Islamabad.
US officials said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion in efforts to reach an agreement.
A senior US official said talks are continuing even now, and progress is being made towards a deal.
US officials are weighing another in-person session with Iran and are looking at potential dates and locations if ongoing discussions with Iran and regional mediators progress.
A source said the US and Iran came “very close” to an agreement and were “80% there” before hitting unresolved decisions that could not be settled on the spot.
Pakistani officials are intensifying diplomatic efforts to bring both sides back to the negotiating table and are awaiting responses from the US and Iran.

US President Trump said the key sticking point in talks is nuclear issues, adding there will be no deal if Iran does not agree to no nuclear weapons.
Trump said the US will get nuclear material back.
US Vice President Vance said Iran moved in the US direction during talks, but not far enough.
Vance said the ball is now in Iran’s court, and the US red lines have been made clear.
The US proposed a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment during talks, while Iran countered with a shorter “single-digit” period.
The US also requested Iran remove all highly enriched uranium from the country, while Iran proposed a monitored process of down-blending instead.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry said a number of points were agreed upon, but two major issues remained unresolved.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said unreasonable US demands prevented an agreement in weekend talks.

US President Trump said the US has been contacted by Iran and that Tehran wants to make a deal “very badly”.
Trump said the blockade began at 10:00 EDT as previously signalled.
Trump said the US will ensure Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons and reiterated that without agreement on nuclear terms, there will be no deal.
Trump stated that the US may pursue further military options if necessary.
US aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush is heading to the Middle East to join operations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi warned of dangerous consequences from US actions in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov told Araghchi it is important that no new fighting breaks out and that Moscow is on high alert to assist in de-escalation.
An IRGC spokesperson said Iran has not yet unveiled many of its capabilities and would respond with methods the enemy cannot counter if war continues.
The Iranian Defence Ministry said foreign military intervention in Hormuz would escalate global energy instability.
An Iranian lawmaker said a draft bill aims to redefine passage rules through the Strait of Hormuz and promote non-dollar energy trade mechanisms.
Iranian President Pezeshkian said Iran will negotiate only within international law and warned that threats to the Strait would have widespread global consequences.
Iran is demanding compensation from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain for allowing territories to be used by the US.

Trump said 34 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the highest since the closure began.
It was reported that 15–20 vessels, mainly Chinese, Pakistani, Russian and Iranian, have recently used a controlled corridor with IRGC permission after paying tolls.
A tanker heading to China was forced to reverse course under the US blockade.
British Defence Ministry deployed additional planners to US Central Command to explore options for reopening the Strait safely.
Saudi Arabia is pressing the US to drop the blockade amid concerns of wider escalation.
China signalled it will continue operating in the Strait and uphold its agreements with Iran.

US Secretary of State Rubio will host Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors for talks aimed at a ceasefire, Hezbollah disarmament and a potential peace deal.
The meeting is scheduled for Tuesday at 18:00 EDT / 23:00 BST.
Hezbollah leadership called on Lebanon to cancel the talks and said it will not abide by any agreement reached.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said he wants a true peace pact with Lebanon.
Sirens sounded in northern Israel, while Hezbollah missile attacks were reported.